50 Democratic House Seats in Play for 2012 After N.Y. Special Election

The National Review reports, based on the results of the special election in the New York 9th Congressional District, as many as 50 Democratic House seats may be vulnerable in next year's election.

This is not to say that the Republicans will pick up all 50, but the National Review provides a list of seats that are as favorable or more so for a GOP turnover for 2012.

The widespread vulnerability of House Democrats, even after the political tsunami of 2010, parallels the predicament President Obama is facing in formerly safe states. Coupled with the fact Democrats have to defend over 20 Senate seats, 2012 is shaping up to be a history-changing year.

Political strategists charged with deploying resources in a nationwide election always take note of four kinds of House seats. There are seats one's party holds that are safe, seats one's party holds that are vulnerable, vulnerable seats the opposition party holds, and safe seats held by the other party. The best situation to be in is to have few of one's own seats vulnerable and as many of the other party's seats as possible vulnerable.

The Democrats are in the worst of all situations. They have to defend many vulnerable seats and do not have many Republican seats ripe for a pickup. Resources such as money, paid campaign workers, and volunteers have to be spread very thin to defend vulnerable seats. Some very vulnerable seats may have to be given up as hopelessly lost.

Coupled with the president having to campaign in previously safe states and defend many Senate seats, one can see the Democrats are bracing for a bloodletting they have not seen in their history. It is a combination of 1980, when another weak president was suddenly at bay in the face of a conservative Republican candidate, and 1994, when congressional Democrats found themselves suddenly an endangered species.

The stakes cannot be higher. The prospect of a Republican president with a large majority in the House and a healthy majority in the Senate, with a mandate to execute a kind of hope and change the Democrats never imagined, must keep people in that party awake at night.

Source: After NY-9, 50 Democrat-Held House Seats Could Be Competitive, Jim Gergahty, National Review, Sept, 15, 2011

Results of New York Election Points to Obama Vulnerability, Mark R. Whittington, Yahoo News, Sept. 14, 2011