500 Home Runs 2010 - 2014: A Look Ahead

Three players joined the esteemed "500 career home run" club in 2007 (Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome, and Frank Thomas). In 2008 or 2009, they will very likely be joined by two more players (Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield). Two other players, Mike Piazza and Carlos Delgado, have over 400 career home runs entering 2008. Of those two, only Delgado appears to have any shot at reaching 500, and he's far from a lock. Beyond that, however, who has a chance at reaching the historic milestone? Entering the 2008 season, no player other than Ramirez, Sheffield, Delgado, and Piazza have over 400 career home runs. There are, however, twelve players who have between 300 and 400 career home runs entering the 2008 season. In this article, we will look at these players shot at reaching 500.

The Golden Oldies

Of the twelve players, six of them are 37 or older. It goes without saying that their chances of reaching 500 home runs is slim to none.

Jeff Kent, who has 365 career home runs but turns 40 in March of 2008, leads off this group. He is the record holder for most home runs hit by a second baseman, and he hit 20 home runs in 2007, but the thought of him hitting 135 home runs after the age of 40 is a stretch.

Jim Edmonds, who will turn 38 in June of 2008, has 361 career home runs. A great player for many years, Edmonds is clearly in the twilight of his career. He has become more of a part time player, and hit just 12 home runs in 2007. He was traded to the San Diego Padres this off-season, who play in a ballpark known for suppressing home runs, another reason to doubt he'll hit anywhere close to enough home runs to approach 500.

Luis Gonzalez, who turns 41 in September of 2008, has 346 career home runs. He has hit 15 in each of the last two seasons, and signed with the Florida Marlins to be a bench player/mentor for the 2008 season.

Moises Alou has 332 career home runs and turns 42 in July of 2008. He was a great player, but missed far too much time with injuries during his prime to stand a chance at 500 home runs.

Reggie Sanders has 305 career home runs and will be 40 for the entire 2008 season, if he plays. He is currently a free agent and pondering his next move. Even if he returns to the field, he has no chance at 400 home runs, never mind 500.

Steve Finley has 304 career home runs and turns 43 before Opening Day. Enough said.

The Middle Men

They're in their mid-30s and have over 300 home runs. Do they have any shot at 500 for his career? Let's examine the candidates.

Chipper Jones has 386 home runs and will turn 36 in April of 2008. In order to get the 114 home runs he'd need to get to 500, he would need to average 38 home runs a year for the next three years, or 28.5 home runs for the next four. Jones has hit 20 or more home runs each of the last 13 years, with 29 in 2007. He missed significant playing time due to injuries the previous two seasons, however. If Jones ages gracefully, he has an outside shot at 500 home runs, but it won't be easy.

Jason Giambi has 364 career home runs and will play the entire 2008 season at age 37. He needs 136 home runs to reach 500, and at this point that seems unlikely. He'd need to average over 45 home runs for the next three years to reach that total, or 34 for the next four years. Giambi hit 37 home runs in 2006, but only 14 in 2007. This admitted steroid user's body doesn't look like it will hold up long enough for him to hit his 500th dinger.

Shawn Green has 328 career home runs and will be 35 for the entire 2008 season. Green is 172 home runs shy of 500, and even if he were to play 6 more seasons, he'd need to average 28.7 homers per year to reach 500. Seeing that he hit 10 home runs in 2007, and 15 in 2006, that seems highly unlikely.

Todd Helton doesn't turn 35 until August of 2008, but with 303 career home runs, he needs a whopping 197 to reach 500. That comes out to 32.8 home runs per year for six years. His home run totals the last three seasons are 20, 15, and 17, so him getting anywhere close to 500 would seem highly unlikely.

Good Shot

As you can see from the above analysis, the chances of ten of the twelve players with between 300 and 400 career home runs of reaching 500 career home runs is very small. That leaves us with two. If I were going to bet on any two players from the list reaching 500 home runs, it would be these two. Not shockingly, these players are the two youngest on the list, and rank second and third in career home runs entering 2008. Let's take a closer look at these two potential 500 home run club members.

Andrew Jones has 368 career home runs, and will turn 31 years old in April of 2008. He is 132 home runs shy of 500 for his career, and despite having one of his worst seasons in 2007, stands a good chance of reaching 500. If he were to hit only 22 home runs per season, he would reach 500 home runs in six seasons, or before the age of 37. In his off year in 2007, he hit 26 home runs. The two previous years he hit 51 and 41. Jones signed a two-year contract in the off-season with the Los Angeles Dodgers after spending his entire career with the Atlanta Braves. Dodger Stadium is a worse hitting ballpark than Turner Field, but Jones still has a very good chance at reaching and exceeding 500 home runs for his career. Jones even has an outside shot at 600 for his career?

Vladimir Guerrero will play the entire 2008 season at age 32, and 365 career home runs. While there has been some talk of Guerrero seeing more time at DH to help keep nagging injuries at bay, he has been very productive even while playing the field. He would have to average only 22.5 home runs over the next 6 seasons to reach 500. In 2007, he hit 27 home runs after 3 straight seasons over 30. As with Jones, he appears to have an outside shot at 600 home runs.

Conclusion

We can conclude that of the twelve players who enter the 2008 season with between 300 and 400 career home runs, only two, Andrew Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, have a good shot at hitting 500 or more home runs before they retire.

While a total of five players are likely to join the 500 home run club from 2007-2009, it appears than there may well be a wait after that for the next 500 home run man to come along. If Carlos Delgado does not achieve the feat (he has 431 home runs at age 36), then we may see a wait until Jones and Guerrero get closer. We may be looking at 2012 to 2014 at that point.