500 Home Runs: Who in MLB will be Next to Join the Club?

Hitting 500 or more home runs over a career is considered a major milestone for major league baseball players. In the history of baseball, twenty-five players have hit 500 or more home runs, including four players who joined the club in 2007. Alex Rodriguez, Frank Thomas, and Jim Thome hit their 500^th home runs last year. Some fans and sportswriters claim that as the 500 home run club grows, it loses some of its significance. The 2008 season may lend some credence to these people's opinions, as two other players could potentially hit their 500^th home run this coming season. In this article, we will look at these two players, and then look down the road to see if the club will be gaining more members in the near future.

Manny Ramirez enters the 2008 season (his 16^th major league season) with 490 career home runs. In an off year (by his lofty standards) in 2007, he hit 20 homers at the age of 35. It was only the second time he's hit less than 30 home runs in a full season in his career. There have been whispers that Manny may be slowing down as he approaches age 36, but all reports from this winter have him working out with renewed vigor. Barring a major injury, he's a near lock to get his 500^th home run in 2008, and if he plays a few more seasons, could approach 600 before he hangs up his spikes. When he does finally hang them up, Ramirez, who is considered one of the best right handed hitters of this or any era, is a near lock for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame. While Manny is sometimes criticized for his lack of focus on defense and on the base paths, there is no doubting his greatness as a hitter.

Gary Sheffield is entering his 21^st major league season in 2008, and his second in Detroit, with 480 career home runs. He hit 26 home runs in 2007 after hitting only 6 in an injury shortened 2006 season. At age 39, will Sheffield have enough to get past 500? If he stays healthy, he has a good chance to reach 500 in 2008, hitting in a very deep Detroit lineup. If he falls just short, expect him to come back in 2010 at age 40 to reach the milestone. Sheffield, a divisive figure who among other problems has been caught up in the steroid mess, has none-the-less put up an impressive career worth of consideration for the Hall of Fame. If Sheffield is not some day a member of the hall, it will be his connection to steroids and his surly attitude that keeps him out, not his numbers.

After Sheffield, there are only two active players with more than 400 career home runs. Mike Piazza, with 427 career home runs, turned 39 in September and as Spring Training starts has not signed a contract for the 2008 season with any team. Piazza, who has the most home runs hit as a catcher, may well be at the end of his career. He hit 8 home runs in 2007 in limited playing time, exclusively as a designated hitter. Even if he hooks up with a team in 2008, it is highly unlikely he'll hang around long enough to hit 73 more home runs. He'll go down as one of the top hitting catchers of all time, and certainly doesn't need 500 home runs to get elected to the Hall of Fame.

While Piazza has pretty much no chance of reaching 500 home runs, Carlos Delgado, who currently has 431 home runs for his career, may have a shot. Delgado turns 36 in late June of 2008, and sits 69 home runs away from 500. Delgado had a down year in 2007, hitting 24 home runs after hitting 38 in 2006, ending a streak of 10 straight years in which he'd hit 30 or more home runs. Was Delgado's slowdown in 2007 simply a bad year, or is he in serious decline? If Delgado can return to his thirty-plus home run seasons, he could reach 500 with two such seasons. Would 500 home runs assure Delgado a place in the Hall of Fame after he retires? It's tough to say at this point. Delgado has been incredibly consistent over the years, with the above mentioned ten straight seasons with 30 or more home runs. He's never hit more than 44 in a single season, however, and he has never led the league in the category. He has led the league in RBI once, and played in only two all-star games. If Delgado has two seasons similar to his average season, he has a good shot at 500 home runs, and will be a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. If he fails to reach 500 home runs, and potentially if he does reach 500 but does so while finishing his career with otherwise mediocre seasons, he probably will not be elected.

While two more players will likely join the 500 home run club in 2008 (and will certainly by 2009), it seems that after the sudden burst of five new members since the start of the 2007 season, we'll see a slowdown in players reaching the milestone. Only one player has a shot at joining the club in the next two or three seasons after Ramirez and Sheffield join, and he is certainly not a lock. I believe 500 career home runs will remain a very important milestone for greatest for the foreseeable future.