6 Rules to Follow when Gambling on Sports

It's common knowledge that the people who win in the long run in sports gambling are the sportsbooks and casinos themselves. How do they always come out ahead? Do they care which teams people bet on? The answer is no. All they care is that you bet on something. So if picking the right team doesn't matter to them then what does? Probability. Sportsbooks know based on the pay scales they have set up that in the long run they'll always profit. Here are a few ways to minimize the sportbook's probability advantage along with other helpful tips.

1. Do Not Bet on Parlays:

Sportsbooks love it when people turn their bets into parlays. The larger payout, while tempting, is not worth it to a gambler who plans to bet continuously. Sooner than later you'll end up giving back your winning parlay. The reason is that the increased payout doesn't match your lowered percentages of winning. Take a look at the probabilities in this parlay table:

# of Teams...........Chance of Winning.............Sports Book Payout...................True Payout
.........1...................................50%....................................10 to 9..................................1 to 1
.........2...................................25% ..................................2.8 to 1..................................4 to 1
.........3..............................12.50%......................................6 to 1..................................8 to 1
.........4.................................6.25%...................................10 to 1................................16 to 1
.........5.................................3.13%...................................25 to 1................................32 to 1

As you can see, with a straight bet of one team you will get close to the True Payout. However, as the number of teams increase the sports book pays out a smaller and smaller % compared to the true payout.

In short, the bigger the parlay, the more the sportsbook will gauge you on the payout. Therefore, it's impossible to win with parlays long term.

2. Bet the Same Amount on an Odd Number of Individual Games:

You can give yourself a better chance of winning money just by betting on an odd amount of games.

# of Bets...............% needed to profit................Wins needed to profit
.......1..................................100%......................................1 for 1
.......2..................................100%......................................2 for 2
.......3....................................66%...................................... 2 for 3
.......4....................................75%.......................................3 for 4
.......5....................................60%.......................................3 for 5

As the chart shows, putting down 3 or 5 separate wagers leaves the most margin for error. Knowing this can be very helpful for football gamblers. Take a look at the schedule and plan out the games you like before they start. Which brings me to my next point...

3. Plan Out Your Bets Before the Games Begin:

Take a look at the upcoming games and pick the ones you like the most. I believe this is very important to prevent people from gambling with emotion. It is a slippery slope to start making bets on games you didn't even like to begin with as a way to attempt to make up for your early losses. If you didn't like a game to begin with, it's not a good idea to take it on a whim.

4. Stay Away From Big Lines:

When betting with money lines instead of point spread I advise staying away from betting on ones that are worse than a -150 payout. Remember, there is no sure thing when gambling and it can become very frustrating if you don't keep that in mind at all times. Making bets where you only are going to get a fraction of your wager back won't work long term. Not only that but it is demoralizing to bet $100 on a -250 team like the Yankees at home vs. the Royals only to watch the upset happen. Not only do you lose the $100, but also knowing all you would have won is $40 makes it that much worse. Even if you win, constantly making those types of bets means you'd have to win 3 in a row (3 x 40 = $120) to stay at profit. Winning every 2 out of 3 would yield a $20 net loss. (2x 40 = $80 - $100 = -$20) It's important to remember its about the overall net profit and not about the amount of bets you win. Which brings me to point number 5...

5. Look for Value:

Value can be found in either a money line or point spread. The best way to look for value is to go through the games and pick winners or point spreads yourself before seeing the actual line or spread. After you do this then look at the line or spread for yourself and see how yours compares to the actual.

For example, maybe the Bengals are a 4 point underdog at home to the Ravens but you think the game will stay within a field goal and they might even win the game. This would be an example of good value. An example of money line value could be the following. The Houston Astros are +130 on the money line vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. When you went through the games you weren't really sure who would win and thought it could go either way. Or maybe you even thought Houston would be the favorite. While the Houston Astros may not have been the team you thought was the most obvious to win, they might be your best bet instead of picking a more heavily favored team that is -200. In the long run you'll have a better chance of profiting if you stick to the value.

6. Be Patient:

The most likely way to make money gambling is to build up your winnings gradually. So don't bet just to bet. If the games available are too close to call then just wait for another day.

The main thing I want people to take out of this article is that sometimes it's not just the ability to pick winners alone that is going to make you successful long term. With a little game planning and use of probability you can set yourself up to win long term. Good luck to everybody. Follow these guidelines and you'll probably do just fine.