75% of Americans Say U.S. In Recession, According to CNN Poll

Are we in a recession? The politicians may say no, but Americans say yes. 74% of us say so, according to a CNN poll, a percentage any politician would lust for in an election. The numbers are pretty evenly divided three ways as far as whether it is a major, moderate or mild recession. Even 54% of Republicans agree with this assessment, less than the nearly 90% of the Democrats who concur, but still a significant number of people.

With gas prices up, which causes other prices to rise since most of the nation's goods are hauled by trucks, and housing prices down, decreasing 4%, the largest drop since the Great Depression, it's no wonder the American public feels this way. A recession is defined as two or more quarters in a year with a decline in the Gross Domestic Product. It may be months before we know for sure. It takes that long for all the economic indicators to come in, but according to an article in the Wall Street Journal's online edition, every housing downturn as sharp as this one has resulted in a U.S. recession. Another article in the Journal recently said that according to most economists, the U.S. is in a recession.

As far as my own family's situation, overtime is down where I work due to falling sales, and layoffs are possible soon. It won't directly affect my situation, but indirectly it might. We had several weeks off last fall in which we had to draw unemployment if we didn't have enough vacation time left to cover it, as most of us didn't. Since my employment is in the heating and air conditioning field, when housing starts go down, sales go down accordingly. Just as the old economic saw that "a rising tide lifts all boats" is true, the opposite is true when the tide ebbs.

In my opinion, at least partly based on our situation, we are definitely in a recession both locally and nationally. Gas prices in Arkansas are especially painful for many. My morning commute is only 8-9 miles, but many have much longer drives from 40-50 miles west from Oklahoma to 40 miles or so east in Arkansas. When gas prices go up and your hours go down that can cause problems for all but the most affluent. Many of the problems in the heat/air business are industry wide, but when in a recession, most people don't buy that new home and don't purchase that new furnace or central air unit.

Our heat just went out this weekend, thank goodness it's spring here and it won't be needed much from here on. The unit is 23 years old and needs to be replaced. We are torn between trying to patch up the old unit and try to make it another year, or buying something we really can't afford right now. We are getting an estimate on a new unit tomorrow, it's doubtful if we can swing it at this time, we'll see.

Bankruptcies in the state of Arkansas are up several percentage points thus far in 2008 and nationally too, I'm sure. The more CEO salaries rise, the more the middle class stays the same or falls, it seems. The local union on my job just ratified a new contract. The new pact calls for higher health insurance premiums as expected. There was no signing bonus which we have sometimes gotten, money that could have been used for a new furnace. There is a decent raise involved, but it won't do much more than keep pace with inflation. However, we are doing better than many in our area and around the U.S.

In a so-called "right to work" state such as Arkansas, unions are fighting with a short stick. The law should be called the "right ot work for less". Many houses sit empty with for sale signs in the yard. So many have had the signs up for months with no luck. Watching the national news, it's the same nearly everywhere. Foreclosures are up, housing prices are down. Credit tightens after being far too easy to obtain before. Think there could be a connection?

Creditors/Predators smell blood in the water. Due to credit card debt, a terrible business investment a little over 4 years ago, a house payment that increased $180 a month suddenly and cutbacks at work, we found ourselves in a Chapter 13 bankruptcy last year. Things are looking better now, but times are still tough. You know it's a recession when even George W. Bush and Congress take action. The economic stimulus package will help. That combined with our tax refund just might be enough to get the central heat/ air unit we need.

All this and the problems of other families that we know, plus looking at economic indicators, leave no doubt that the economic gurus will soon arrive at the conclusion many of us have known for some time. The U.S. is in a recession.