A Breakdown of the Electoral College Map

As I've been spending some time on the pavement thinking about the government and the election, the one thing that I keep hearing from numerous sources is how the election is tightening here in the final week.

It's not.

I love to be the one to say that the emperor is wearing no clothes. Look, there is no chance that John McCain wins this election. None, zero, zip, nada. People can say that the polls are tightening but just because they say it, doesn't mean that it's true in any meaningful way.

For the Presidential election on Tuesday, there are a few things worth monitoring but the final outcome is not one of them. The only doubt is the final score. How many of the battleground states will Barack Obama win? Will Obama double up on McCain in the electoral college? By how many points will Obama win the popular vote?

According to the great election site FiveThirtyEight.com, these are the states firmly in each camp as of the Sunday before the election:

John McCain - Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Barack Obama - California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Washington D.C., Wisconsin.

Leaning McCain - Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota
Leaning Obama - Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio

No pollster is 100 percent accurate but if we believe these numbers, then McCain has 160 electoral votes in the bag. Add in the three states that are leaning McCain and he has 25 more to bring his total up to 185. You can even give him the ones that are leaning Obama and that wouldn't do it. Those four states have 67 votes which would give McCain 252.

So, in order for McCain to win, he has to keep every state that is currently in his camp, win every state that is leaning his direction, capture all of the states that have an Obama lean and capture two states that are firmly in the Obama camp. Call me crazy, but I do not see that happening.

Now, I'm sure there are those of you out there who think that Virginia should not be firmly in Obama's camp, but even if you give those 13 votes to McCain, he still has 265 votes in the most rose-colored, optimistic scenario that you could paint. Where are the remaining votes going to come from to push McCain to the Presidency? Pennsylvania? In the numerous polls represented at FiveThirtyEight, none show McCain in the lead in the Keystone State, four have the margin within six points and there are at least 10 that show it a double-digit lead for Obama. That's a blue state.

On the flip side, Obama has 286 votes firmly in his camp. If he captures the four states leaning his way, he has 353 votes. FiveThirtyEight has three states leaning McCain but I think there are two states that are firmly in the McCain camp that are still not certain victories for the Republicans. I believe that Georgia and even Arizona are still somewhat available for Obama.

So, when taking the rose-colored approach for the Obama side, he has a non-zero chance of cracking 400 electoral votes. If he carries all of the states firmly in his camp, the seven swing states, Georgia and Arizona he would wind up with 403 electoral votes. That would be the most by a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won 486 votes in the 1964 election.

I would be shocked if Obama won that many electoral votes, but I think Bill Clinton's total of 379 from the 1996 election is within reach for the Democrats. Certainly, he should top Jimmy Carter's 297 votes.

Hopefully, you have already participated in early voting if it is allowed in your state. If not, make sure you get to the polls on Tuesday. And sit back and enjoy the election coverage. At least this year we will not have to sit up past midnight to see how Florida and Ohio and others shake out to determine our next President.