A Cloud of Ash Could Change the World as We Know It

Most people by now are aware of the impact that the volcanic eruption in Iceland is having on air travel in Europe, causing chaos for people who are stranded away from home during the Easter break or on business trips.

Although the impact from the eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano on the world climate is likely to be negligible, the economic impact of this has caused unprecedented travel chaos.

On 14th April the ice covered volcano in Iceland erupted for the second time in four weeks, shooting clouds of dust, ash and rocks over 10,000 feet into the air, where the winds carried it across the Atlantic Ocean towards Northern Europe.

As a result, IATA, the body that governs the world's airlines, decided on Thursday 15th April to suspend all flights over the areas affected by the cloud of ash, including the UK, Ireland, France, Belgium, Germany, Holland, Switzerland, Austria and as far east as parts of Russia.

It was decided that the dangers from the volcanic ash to aircraft engines, as well as to bodywork and sensitive equipment, would be too costly in terms of equipment loss as well as the dangers to loss of life should an aircraft suffer complete engine failure. The effects of volcanic ash on jet engines has been documented, and there have been cases before where engines have seized up. The skin of an aircraft body is also very thin, and the wear of the ash and other particles in the atmosphere could cause the skin to tear or rupture, resulting in cabin de-pressureisation, which could also be fatal.

For people in the UK, this fell in the middle of the two week Easter school holidays, which is a time when many people go overseas on vacation, and it has caused tremendous problems with many thousands of people being stranded away from home, as well as people being unable to travel to their destinations.

Currently it is possible to fly in and out of the UK, but only by traveling overland as far south as Spain, which is a full day of travel, and the overland train and bus services are already straining to cope with the extra load. The Royal Navy is now going to be deployed to try and bring home thousands of people who have managed to get back as far as Spain, in an attempt to help get them home.

This is also affecting couples who had planned to get married in the Caribbean, with travel from the UK having been canceled day after day now for four days.

The cost to the airlines has already run into billions of pounds, plus the impact on business travel and the shipment of goods and mail by air also being disrupted.

The disruption has spread further afield than just Western Europe of course, with the inability of people to travel to various destinations. Even the Caribbean has been affected, with Antigua Sailing Week, which was due to be held from 24-30 April being canceled because many competitors are stuck in Europe, according to Cowes Online.

Not since World War Two has anything like this happened like this to affect travel on such a large scale, with the exception of 9-11 of course.

What concerns me, is that this is a fairly small eruption, far smaller than the eruption of Krakatoa on August 27th, 1883. The sound of the final explosion in Krakatoa was heard over 4500km away and covered 1/13th of the Earth's surface. The ash cloud blocked enough sunlight to drop the Earth's temperature by several degrees for a few years, and also created spectacular sunsets over seventy percent of the Earth's surface.

Back then in Victorian times, although the climatic change was felt, the economic effects outside of the Indonesian region were minimal. What would happen however if an eruption of this size was to occur today?

Much of the world today relies on air travel to get from one place to another. It's been less than 50 years since long distance air travel became popular, and the normal way to travel long distances, rather than going overland, but should an eruption the size of Krakatoa occur today, it's likely that air travel would come to an end worldwide for not just a few days, but for maybe months or even years.

Just how would we cope with this type of situation, and how would our lives be affected?

For a start, I imagine that a thick cloud of dust would affect satellite communications. This means not only television and telephone signals, but also GPS systems, military and commercial tracking systems. So not only could you not travel by air, most of the long distance phone services would have to revert back to the cables that go under the ocean.

Forget flying overseas on vacation. Other than driving somewhere, or sailing, you would be forced to take vacations closer to home. No more easy visits to see family and friends who live overseas, and with communications bandwidth drastically reduced, most likely a vastly reduced internet service, so using webcams to chat with people overseas would also probably be virtually impossible.

As well as the personal impact, the economic impact would be colossal. Companies with offices or suppliers and customers in different countries would find it hard to communicate, and forget speedy delivery of packages by air. Everything coming in and out of a country would have to be by surface, with the world shipping most likely being unprepared to cope with the increases in freight volumes.

Climate changes might affect food production too, as well as having further repercussions. Solar energy would be less effective due to lower levels of sunlight.

So why does this worry me?

If you think about it, in the last six months there have been more large earthquakes than usual, and increased activity in several volcanoes as well. It's always worrying in case this is part of a global increase in tremors and eruptions, but with the 21st December 2012, the Mayan "Armageddon" day fast approaching, it does make you wonder whether this is all part of some change that they could foresee thousands of years ago.

I would be interested to hear of your views on both the suspension of flights due to the Icelandic eruption, as well as the possibilities of more and larger catastrophes to come. Please feel free to leave a comment for me and for other people who read this article.