A Dry Winter is Coming

Never mind that parts of the Gulf Coast were under flash-flood warnings at the end of this week: both the Southeast and the Southwest are likely to see continued drought conditions this winter, according to the latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA's latest forecast for the 2007-08 winter in the U.S. predicts warmer-than-average temperatures for most of the nation and continued dry conditions for parts of the country already suffering from extreme drought.

"The prediction for a warmer than normal winter is still on course," said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "Our big concern continues to be the persistence of drought across large parts of the country's southern tier. Nearly half of the Southeast is in extreme drought and water supplies have reached critical levels in some cities."

Just this week, a cold front brought heavy rains to much of the parched Southeast, and the city of Pensacola reported damage from a tornado as well as from 10-plus inches of rain. Still, the one-shot punch of precipitation isn't expected to reverse months of heat and little rain. Even short-term expectations of more rain over the next week or so aren't likely to help, according to NOAA meteorologists. In fact, with this year's hurricane season near its Nov. 30 end, the chances of good soaking rains in the region are declining, the agency said.

With the onset of La Niña conditions, marked by unusually cold waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, dry weather is also likely to continue across the Mid Atlantic and the Southwest, according to NOAA. However, other parts of the country -- the Northeast, the Great Lakes area, the Northwest and the northern Rockies -- should see some relief from the drought this winter, the agency predicted.

Temperature-wise, NOAA predicts winter weather that's 3.4 percent warmer than the past 30-year average, although it will be slightly cooler (0.7 percent) than last year.

"Even though December, January and February are likely to be milder than average for much of the country, people should still expect some typical winter weather this season," Halpert said.

NOAA scientists base their long-term seasonal outlooks on climate trends and statistical modeling that includes analysis of complex ocean-atmosphere interactions.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track." URL:(http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071018_winteroutlook.html)