A Republican Comeback?

One of my earlier articles on Associated Content discussed the problem Republicans had when it came rebounding from their last two election losses and win the 2010 midterm election.

But, are there some breaks emerging for Republicans? As of now, it appears so.

Through observation of the latest races, it appears that the dynamics are changing in a few of the states that could have posed a problem for Republicans. Two of them include Florida and North Carolina.

In Florida, it was a couple of weeks ago when Republican Governor Charlie Crist announced that he was running for the United States Senate. Quickly Crist had received a lot of opposition to him from the right of his party for being a so called moderate. Attacks from conservative Republicans, such as primary candidate Marco Rubio have surfaced, which attacked Crist's moderation on issues.

But the last poll taken by Mason Dixon showed those attacks by Crist's primary opponent to be ineffective. The poll said that Crist had 53 percent of support, compared to Rubio's 18 percent. Twenty nine percent said they were undecided, but Crist would still win, even if Rubio got all 29 percent of the undecided voters to his side.

That sets up Governor Crist nicely against the leading Democratic candidate, Kendrick Meek. Crist leads Meek by over 30 points in the same Mason Dixon poll taken last month.

In North Carolina, the race quickly went from a tossup to a likely Republican after North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper said he was not going to run for the Senate seat against Republican incumbent Senator Richard Burr. In earlier polls, Senator Burr was trailing by four points to Cooper before he announced his intention not to run.

Now the toughest candidate to Senator Burr appears to be North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. However, she trails Senator Burr by the considerable amount of eight points.

The other potential candidates get hammered even worse, trailing by as much as about 20 points. As of now, the candidates who have declared on the Democratic side are two no names, making Senator Burr's reelection very likely.

In addition, Democrats have woes of their own in many states where they have to defend in the next election. States such as New York, Connecticut, Illinois, Colorado, Nevada and possibly even Delaware look hazardous for Democrats.

Two of those states right now are trending Republican, one appears to be trending Republican depending on certain circumstances and the other three states are tossups. To be fair, anything can change immediately in politics, but Republicans should be feeling good about some possible gains being made in the Senate.

Even the wildcard state of Pennsylvania could be in play with the right circumstances. Just a few days ago, Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak decided to run for the United States Senate against fellow Democratic incumbent Senator Arlen Specter. Right now Senator Specter is a shoe-in, but if Sestak should pull off the miracle, Club for Growth member Pat Toomey would only trail Sestak by five points, which could make the seat a tossup.

Also, Republicans are getting good news out of New Hampshire where the latest hypothetical poll former Republican Senator John Sununu leading Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes by five points. Sununu gained 10 points in that April Granite State poll from an American Research Group poll taken earlier, while Hodes lost a point.

Also, the debate over torture has also crippled the Democrats. CNN and Gallup polling has suggested former Vice President Dick Cheney is winning the debate over enhanced interrogations and Guantanamo Bay. The new Gallup poll suggests that, by a two to one margin, don't want the prison camp closed. In addition, Americans by a three to one margin say they don't want these terrorists into the United States. President Obama supports both of those ideas, while Republicans do not.

Then there is scandal as to what Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi knew about the interrogation methods. She drew heavy criticism from Republicans for her response to what the CIA released saying she knew all about the programs. That also has a potential to hurt Democrats in 2010.

That means Democrats might want to be careful before writing off the Republicans and their midterm election hopes. This is not to say Republicans don't have any problems because evidence has suggested otherwise.

In an ABC poll, only 21 percent described themselves as Republicans, which is the lowest it has ever been. Additional state polling has suggested Democrats are pulling away in Missouri and Ohio, making those two tossup states lean more Democratic, which might offset some Republican gains made elsewhere.

But that dramatic reporting by most news reporters and political pundits that Republicans might be in big trouble after Senator Arlen Specter might turn out not to be true. Don't rule out a Republican comeback.