A Statistical Analysis of the 2008-2009 New York Knicks Season

With a cast of apparent rising stars leading the New York Knicks on the verge of a potential playoff birth, many are viewing Mike D'Antoni as the savior of this fallen franchise. Others, however, are claiming that this team, with yet again a losing record, only looks good on paper because the D'Antoni style of basketball inflates statistics and makes weak players look strong. That raises the question, has Mike D'Antoni truly improved the Knicks?

At 28-37, the Knicks are sporting a .431 winning percentage, which is 54% higher than last year's winning percentage, and the highest winning percentage that the Knicks have had in their last five seasons. Their average game margin is currently -1.75. That margin is also a five-season best and is almost five points better than last season.

As we look deeper into what has brought the Knicks more success this season, their ball control appears to be the key. When compared to Knicks teams of the last five seasons, the 2008-2009 Knicks are producing the highest assist to turnover rate and are turning over the ball the least per field goal attempted. They are also ranked second in percentages of field goals assisted by a mere three-tenths of a percent.

For the purpose of this analysis, three statistics were used in rating shot selection. Free throws attempted per field goals attempted was used as an indicator of how many shots taken were a high enough percentage shot that defenses felt the need to overplay. Field goal percentage was used based upon the fact that if you're making your shots, you've selected the right shots to take. The final stat used was free throw percentage minus field goal percentage. The basis of this stat was that free throw percentage is an indicator of your pure uncontested shooting skill. Teams with low free throw percentage may have a low field goal percentage simply because they are not good shooters. This statistic attempts to negate that factor. This year's Knicks ranked last in all three of these categories, ranking them last in shot selection.

Shot selection has truly affected the Knicks' ability to win games. In fact, if they had only earned as many free throw attempts per field goal attempt as they did last season, based upon their free throw percentage, they would have scored an additional 2.75 points per game and had an average game margin of +1. If this was the case, Knick fans would be building the Mike D'Antoni statue outside of MSG as we speak. In defense of this year's Knick team, however, the Knick three teams that ranked first in shot selection, came from seasons where the Eastern Conference and the Atlantic Division were much weaker than they are this year.

The 2008-2009 Knicks were dead last in percentage of available defensive rebounds available grabbed, but they ranked second in offensive rebounds. Despite their offensive rebounding success, though, they were still last in total rebound percentage, based upon the amount of rebounds obtained versus the number of rebounds available.

As anticipated, this year's team also ranked last in defense. They were last in blocks per opponents' field goals attempted and opponents' field goal percentage. They were in the middle on steals per opponents' field goal attempts. They actually lead the pack in opponents' free throw attempts per FGA, indicating that they are not allowing other teams to get to the line. Also, despite giving up the highest number of points, they were actually second in opponents' points scored versus Knicks' field goals attempted, indicating that the pace of the game, obviously, was the biggest factor in why opponents scored so many points.

Perhaps, the most important factor in determining whether or not the Knicks' success this year was earned or not, is the competition they faced. The 2008-2009 Knicks have faced Eastern Conference opponents who are putting up the best combined record that they have in five years. Their Atlantic Division foes are sporting a combined record that is second only to last season, and may have been first except for the fact that some of the Knicks' victories this season have come at their expense. Basically, Mike D'Antoni's team has achieved success despite facing tougher competition than the Knicks have faced in over five years.

Overall, there's no way to deny D'Antoni credit for what the Knicks have achieved this season. Mikey D put the ball in the hands of guys who would hold onto it and has utilized the fast-paced game to find success in a stacked Eastern Conference. Give him a steady cast for a season, and he'll have his team taking better shots, getting to the line, and winning games into late spring.

Statistics Sources:

www.nba.com/knicks/stats/index.html

www.nba.com/standings/team_record_comparison/conferenceNew_Std_Div.html