A Syrian Takeover of Lebanon?

The Middle East Times reported October 2 that Syria has been moving military forces to its border with Lebanon for nearly a week now, raising the question of whether or not Syria intends to once again overtly exercise control over its neighbor.

Syria has long exercised influence over Lebanon, and only reluctantly withdrew its forces under international pressure in the wake of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Syria is suspected by many of being responsible for the Hariri assassination. As noted by the Times, Syrian President Bashar Assad said at the time of Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon that the move did not mean Syria was done exercising its influence. The Times says, and most observers and analysts agree, that Syria continues to station thousands of covert intelligence personnel within Lebanon.

Lebanon is a problem for the entire region. Hezbollah operates freely from Lebanon, and Israel routinely violates Lebanese territory and airspace in an attempt to keep Hezbollah in check. The summer 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel inflicted massive damage on Lebanon in a conflict that seemed to diminish some of the mystique surrounding Israeli military might in the region. A significant portion of the Lebanese Army is sympathetic to Hezbollah, and the Lebanese government is fragmented and, for all intents and purposes, dysfunctional. United Nations peacekeepers are present in southern Lebanon, and Iran exercises some influence as well.

Syria has been attempting in recent months to improve its standing in the region and in the eyes of the international community. Syria's alignment with Iran has been strained at times recently, and negotiations with Israel have not played very well with hard liners within the Syrian intelligence and military establishments. The key to much of Syria's power and wealth is its influence in Lebanon, as well as its degree of control over Lebanon, and it would not be far fetched to believe that Syria would move its military forces across the border.

If Syria did act, there would probably few repercussions, and any condemnations would be largely symbolic. Israel would not intervene, and probably could not if it wanted to. Politically, Israel is just too fragile at the moment. The United States is preoccupied with Afghanistan, Iraq, and a financial crisis at home, and the United Nations force in southern Lebanon is more for show than anything else.

There is a window of opportunity right now for Syria to reestablish control over Lebanon. That window could close suddenly, and Syria may well be positioning itself to act before time runs out.