Academy Award Predictions

The 82^nd annual Academy Awards are just about on us this year with the broadcast date being this Sunday, March 7 on ABC. You can expect the show to run long, be very boring in spots and finish with few to any surprises. The next day we can read about how co-hosts Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin were just so-so, the two musical numbers were bloated and unnecessary, and why did they cut off all but two members of Avatar's sound team so they miss out on thanking their families while we got to listen to Sandra Bullock prattle on for several minutes. It's the same every year.

But every year we movie buffs still tune in. So since we are all going to take the same ride together I thought I would make Oscar predictions in nine major categories. Personally I don't see this as much of a challenge. I think six of the nine categories are a lock and the other three are fifty/fifty. So if I do well you can expect there will be little gloating from me. This just seems to be one of those years where the expected winners are likely to win.

Let me start by saying that Avatar will be the big winner in number of awards. I think it will take 7 Oscars of the 9 it is nominated for but I also think the movie will falter in the two major categories and take home (deservedly so) all the technical awards it is up for. I cannot imagine it losing any of the lesser awards.

Without further adieu here are my predictions. I am off now to rent my tuxedo in preparation of walking the red carpet and schmoozing with the stars. And, yes, then I will wake up to read the inevitable reviews. Remember these are my predictions (in bold) and not my preferences, though I will note them as well.

BEST PICTURE:

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglorious Basterds

Precious

A Serious Man

Up

Up in the Air

First off let me air my opinion on the ten picture nominees. I think it is ridiculous to expand and it was done only in the hopes that big hits would be nominated and the movie going audience would be more likely to check out the show. Ludicrous. The Blind Side and District 9 are good movies but Best Picture worthy? Up is a shoo-in for the Best Animated Feature category so it should have not been eligible for this category as it took away another film's chance from being nominated. Off the top of my head I think Star Trek was absolutely Best Picture worthy. Nothing against Up, a terrific film, but it should have been relegated to the other category.

In one of the few categories where there might be some suspense, my pick is The Hurt Locker simply because I thought it was 2009's best film. It is a powerful movie that stuck with me for weeks after seeing it and some of its images are still firmly etched in my mind. It's the little film that could and it deserves to win. The only other challenger is going to be James Cameron's Avatar which is a masterpiece of visual imagery. Every frame has something to see and requires multiple viewings to soak it all in. But when you strip away the layers of imagery the film is a basic good guy/bad guy action film that is only original by its settings and alien life forms. It's nothing special and certainly not worthy of the Oscar but still, its popularity is great enough to pull it off. My question is: If the story was so great why was Cameron's screenplay not nominated?

BEST ACTOR:

Jeff Bridges "Crazy Heart"

George Clooney "Up in the Air"

Colin Firth "A Single Man"

Morgan Freeman "Invictus"

Jeremy Renner "The Hurt Locker"

This is an easy one. Jeff Bridges, my favorite actor, is long overdue for the glory he is receiving this year and it is well deserved. His portrayal of Bad Blake, a near washed up country singer is both pathetic and heart breaking at the same time and yet Bridges still makes us care about Blake. It is an exceptional performance. Bridges only real competition is Clooney but that film's luster has worn off some. The other three nominees are also rans this year.

BEST ACTRESS:

Sandra Bullock "The Blind Side"

Helen Mirren "The Last Station"

Carey Mulligan "An Education"

Gabourey Sidibe "Precious"

Meryl Streep "Julie and Julia"

It is with great reluctance that I am predicting a Sandra Bullock victory. I am not one of her biggest films but am still open enough to recognize an Oscar worthy performance. Her role in The Blind Side simply isn't it. It's a good performance but nothing to write home about but since she has been winning every other award in sight there is no reason to think she won't win this. Her major competition, and my preference, comes from Meryl Streep who was dead on terrific playing Julia Child. Streep hasn't won an Oscar in 28 years and is 0 for her last 12 nominations. Isn't time to reward our greatest actress again for one mesmerizing performance after another? Unlikely. Bullock is well liked and is unlikely to be nominated again. She is also playing it coy to the press by predicting she has no chance to win. I hope she is right.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Matt Damon "Invictus"

Woody Harrelson "The Messenger"

Christopher Plummer "The Last Station"

Stanley Tucci "The Lovely Bones"

Christoph Waltz "Inglourious Basters"

I am thrilled with the long overdue nomination for Plummer, one of our great character actors. Unfortunately no one saw his movie and the nomination will be his prize. Equally thrilling is Harrelson's nomination in a terrific but also little seen film. Damon and Tucci were nominated for the wrong films. Damon was much better and could have been a Best Actor nominee for The Informant. Tucci should have been nominated for playing Julia Child's husband in Julie and Julia. Christoph Waltz gave the male supporting performance of the year and walked away with this prize in the very first scene of Inglourious Basterds. It was a master stroke of evil and manipulation hidden in charm. He was magnificent.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Penelope Cruz "Nine"

Vera Farmiga "Up in the Air"

Maggie Gyllenhaal "Crazy Heart"

Anna Kendrick "Up in the Air"

Mo'Nique "Precious"

This is another no brainer. Mo'Nique delivered an amazing performance as an abusive mother whose evil goes well beyond what you would expect. But when she talks to a therapist trying to justify her behavior and looking for goodness to come her way, you want to kill her yourself. Cruz' nomination is beyond me. Farmiga and Kendrick will cancel each other out by splitting the vote and Gyllenhaal's nomination is her prize, especially since she was the one true acting nomination surprise in all the categories.

BEST DIRECTOR:

James Cameron "Avatar"

Kathryn Bigelow "The Hurt Locker"

Quentin Tarantino "Inglourious Basterds"

Lee Daniels "Precious"

Jason Reitman "Up in the Air"

Once again this is a two horse race. Daniels becomes only the second African-American (after John Singleton) to be nominated in the category but his film's subject matter is too dark. Tarantino announced his comeback with this nomination but there is more greatness to come from him. Reitman is on his second nomination (after Juno) in the last three years and is an important director but he is still young. The prize is going to come down to the formerly married couple, Cameron and Bigelow. I am picking Bigelow, only the fourth woman ever nominated for Director, because she created moments of suspense that made you want to scream out to the screen. Plus it is about time the Academy honored a woman. It is long overdue.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Mark Boal "The Hurt Locker"

Quentin Tarantino "Inglourious Basterds"

Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman "The Messenger"

Joel Cohen, Ethan Coen "A Serious Man"

Bob Peterson, Pete Doctor, Tom McCarthy "Up"

Once again I think this is a two horse race with a dark horse prepared to shock everyone. While I am ecstatic at the inclusions of The Messenger and A Serious Man, neither one has a chance. Up is my dark horse choice. You just can't count out those Pixar people. To me it comes down to Tarantino and Boal. I am going with Boal because I think it will ride the wave of success the film should have in the major categories but never count out Tarantino, whose dialogue is like poetry and is so sweet to listen to. This is a coin flip.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell "District 9"

Nick Hornsby "An Education"

Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche "In The Loop"

Geoffrey Fletcher "Precious"

Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner "Up In The Air"

For me this is an easy one. The nomination for In The Loop was totally out of left field. An Education was probably a touch over praised and its nominations are its prizes. District 9 could be the dark horse in this category. Precious will likely have to settle for the Supporting Actress trophy. My pick is Up in the Air not only because it is a wonderfully told character study of a lonely man content with that loneliness but also because this is the category it is most likely to win. Normally when a film with several nominations loses its steam, the screenplay award seems to be the one the film settles for. This and the fact that it and Precious are the only two films in this category that are nominated for Best Picture makes its victory more likely. Rarely does a screenplay winner not have a corresponding Best Picture nomination to go along with it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Coraline

Fantastic Mr. Fox

The Princess and the Frog

The Secret of Kells

Up

The absolute no brainer of the evening is Up walking away with this award. The film is so good that voters deemed it one of the best picture nominees as well. That's all need be said. Truthfully this and Fantastic Mr. Fox (also terrific) were the only two of the nominees I saw so I can't fairly dissect the other three but it doesn't really matter. Up is a masterpiece and deserves to win.