Adrian Gonzalez: To Trade or Not to Trade?

There could be much worse situations to confront a baseball team than what the Padres are facing right now, but their unique problem needs to be handled very delicately. The problem that faces the Padres is their All Star, Gold Glove First baseman, Adrian Gonzalez. The problem is not a question of if they trade him, but one of when. There are many people that feel very strongly that Adrian needs to stay a part of the team for his career and that they should build a team around Adrian. There are others that see the more realistic solution of offing him to another team and robbing them blind in prospects. There is still another group that sees Adrian as being able to get some proven talent and a few prospects. No matter what route the Padres take in solving this, there are several different intricacies to the solution. The fact that the Padres have left Adrian off of all their publication materials for next season does not bode well for fans that wish to keep the star slugger. There are other signs that prophesy the end to an Adrian era in San Diego, but what should the Friars do?

With two years left on Adrian's discount contract, now is the time to start thinking about a trade. If the Padres wait too long, they may find that many teams will not be willing to pay the price for a "rental" on one of the best corner infielders in the game. If they wait until the July 31^st trade deadline, he may have a bad season. Adrian has been a historically slow starter. The first half is not his strongpoint and he needs to play at least until June before he will heat up. The problem with that is that his numbers will be greatly deflated, driving his value through the floor. Another problem that the Friars are faced with is the fall out from trading a fan favorite that has become the face of the franchise. If they can not get a dynamic trade that proves to be one of the best deals ever made in baseball history, fans from both sides of the border will be demanding the heads of the new owner and his new GM as well. So what are they to do?

The options are rather simple. The first of these is to trade him now. Many of the fans would be forgiving as long as the return was very attractive. The fact that Hoyer, the new GM, comes from the Red Sox, this type of steal may be possible. The problem is that the pieces we would receive from Boston would not be proven MLB players. They are all minor league prospects. Many of these prospects are the best in baseball and they all have a lot of talent, but who is to say they can transfer that talent to "the Show"? If the players are a bust, there will be no mercy from the fans and many will make the short jaunt up the road to LA. Converting from Padre Sand to Dodger Blue would be very simple. Even if another team comes up with a better trade, the fans would demand a huge trade that is heavily lopsided toward the Padres.

Option number two would be to wait until the trade deadline this year. With teams fighting for the post season, you can get some very desperate deals done. There is also the case of the Yankees and BoSox. If both of these teams are fighting for the playoffs and one of them wants Adrian, there will be a bidding war. This almost happened when Boston showed interest in Brian Giles. The Yankees would have made a much better trade just to bench him and keep the Sox from getting him. There are several rivalries that are just like this all over baseball. There could be a real frenzy over a power player that is proven in the stretch.

A third option is to wait until next year to trade him. If this were to happen, the returns would drop. The Friars would also be risking a possible injury or bad season with Gonzalez. If either of these were to happen, they would then be stuck with Adrian for a long time with almost no trade value. They would also face the fact that he may be seen as a rental at that time. With only the one season (or part thereof) before he would be due a monster contract, many teams would be scared away. They would also understand that this would be the last chance the Padres have of ditching him to get something in return. Why not just wait a couple months and scoop him up off the hot stove? This would cost the receiving team the same money it would take to sign him anyways and they would be able to keep all of their other players and talent as well. For the teams trying to make the post season with no way to cover the contract, it would be a rental situation and they may not be willing to part with very much at all.

One final option for the Pads is to try to resign him. This may be what many of the fans are shouting now, but they have failed to look at the problem from all aspects. It would be nice to keep Adrian for his entire career, but with limited payroll funds and a potential $22+ million per year contract, this would adversely affect the entire team. Even if Adrian were to take the San Diego discount, it would not reduce the cost enough to be able to pay the rest of the team. Many fans want the Padres to build a team around Adrian. This would involve two things. One, the outfield wall at Petco would have to be brought in for him to want to stay. Adrian has already demanded this and wants the walls in. To do this, it would be a hitter friendly park. With a $40 million salary cap for the team, you have to have a pitcher friendly park. You can not afford enough hitters on that salary to field a team. Five good pitchers are much more affordable for the Padres and much cheaper than five to nine big bats. This means that the Padres would have to concede almost every home game. Adrian's numbers would be colossal, but the team would be the laughing stock of baseball and make the Nationals look like the Yankees. Two, the rest of the team would have to agree to play for the league minimum. This is both unfair and impossible. The only way to do it is to bring an entirely new team up from AAA every season. As soon as a player is arbitration eligible, they would have to be traded away and some one else brought in. This is no way to build a competitive team. There is no way that anyone can be anything but last in their division if they field a team in this manner. Keeping Adrian is not possible for the Padres at this time. The only other option for the Padres to hang on to Adrian is to make a "gentleman's agreement" with their trade partner. They can "loan" Adrian to the other team and make a deal to get him back in a couple years when they can afford his contracts. This would still require the walls to be brought in, but with a huge salary, it may be possible in the future.

No matter how you slice it, Adrian Gonzalez has a limited life span on his days as a Padre. In my opinion, the best time to trade him would be around July this year. This would get the other teams hungry for a power bat and give Adrian and the fans a little time this season to say farewell. It may not be permanent, but for right now, there is no way that the Padres can keep Adrian. It is better to off him now instead of next season. The Friars are already in a rebuilding stage and have a very talented first baseman just waiting for his chance to shine. He is faster than Adrian and shows the ability to be even better. With the trade of Adrian, the management can get a heavy hitting outfielder and a veteran backstop. They may be able to get the one or two pitching pieces in the deal as well. Keeping Adrian may increase relations south of the border and appease the fan base for now, but would destroy any hope of the team even dreaming about the playoffs for years to come. I enjoy having Adrian as a Padre, but his time is up. Cut the stings and let him fly. It is time to move on to the Blanks era at first base.