AFC West 2011: Las Vegas Odds to Win and Pick

The AFC West was one of the strangest divisions in football last season. The San Diego Chargers disappointed again and the Oakland Raiders went undefeated in the division. The Kansas City Chiefs improved last season but now teams know to prepare for their potent one-two punch at running back.

The Las Vegas Hilton Superbook, undaunted, picked the San Diego Chargers as the odds on favorite to win the AFC West but the betting public won't buy it. The Chargers are the only team on the board for the AFC West that are minus money and they have no shot as long as Norv Turner is the head coach.

San Diego Chargers -200

Norv Turner is an anchor dragging down this talented San Diego Chargers team. Phillip Rivers is a top five NFL quarterback with two of the best receivers in the game, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. The running game could use a big punishing back, remember Natrone Means?

Defense is another strong suit for the Chargers and they will need to make some tough decisions in free agency this week. The Chargers need to address signing Stephen Cooper and Eric Weddle first and then they need to prepare to possibly lose one of the two.

Kansas City Chiefs +350

The Kansas City Chiefs had an incredible season last year and now comes the hangover. Todd Haley's offense run by Charlie Weis, will now have Haley calling the shots and run the team. The offense will still be a run first offense with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones but Matt Cassel is not a top-tier NFL quarterback.

Defense is the key to his team remaining competitive. Romeo Crennel is the best defensive mind in football and he has talent on his side of the ball. Defense will not be the issue on this team but they can potentially lose a few players through the free agency period.

Oakland Raiders +400

The best team in the AFC West last season was the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders can lose Nnamdi Asomugha to the Houston Texans or the New York Jets but they need to focus on making a legitimate run at the best shut down corner in football. They also must resign Zach Miller.

The Raiders offense can improve if they bring in a possession receiver and a banger at fullback to open holes for Darren McFadden. Defensively this young defense is mean and molded in the image of Raiders of yesteryear. LaMaar Houston and Rolando McClain will develop as leaders on the Raiders defense and this team will improve to a winning record in 2011.

Denver Broncos +1000

The Denver Broncos at +1000 to win the division is worth a look. John Fox is a great coach who burned out with the Carolina Panthers. A rejuvenated Fox will make some controversial decisions early. Watch for him to bring Kyle Orton back to the starting quarterback position over Tim Tebow. Defense is another strong suit for this team.

Final Verdict

Bet the Raiders at +400 to win the AFC West but also make a small play on the Denver Broncos at +1000 just in case.

*Todd Jacobs is a 16 year Las Vegas resident with extensive knowledge of the ins and outs of sports betting in Las Vegas. Follow Todd on Twitter @LVIIToddJacobs.

Sources:

Las Vegas Hilton Superbook Betting Sheets

NFL website NFL profiles and statistics