Afghan War Will Resume in the Spring

U.S. intelligence officials say a top Pakistan Taliban leader was likely killed January 14 in a Drone missile strike. The "likely" is because Hakimullah Mehsud's Pakistani supporters deny he is dead, even while the U.S. is circumspect about the reports. The Pakistani Taliban certainly has something to gain by maintaining their charismatic leader is alive. Hakimullah hasn't yet called a press conference as he did when he was previously reported dead. Yet, the inability of U.S. intelligence to positively confirm Mehsud's death is symptomatic of the intelligence void extant in the Pakistani tribal provinces.

The reports that Bin Laden, Mullah Omar, and Ayman Zawahiri were hiding in Quetta or in the nearby tribal areas has been coming from CIA and other sources for several years. The Obama administration has quietly stepped up Predator Drone attacks in Pakistan.

Hakimullah Mehsud's demise would be a morale booster to U.S. war planners, as was the hideous Zarquawi's death in Iraq. Mehsud's targeting is evidence of a barely disguised CIA retaliation at the murder of seven CIA operatives at the hands of a double agent and suicide bomber. Before those devastating attacks on CIA assets, the double agent was photographed with Hakimullah Mehsud. Hakimullah Mehsud is believed to have helped plan the attack on the CIA operating base and is frequently linked with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

President Obama was applauded by Republicans in December 2009 for authorizing the deployment of 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. It was a late move, allowing the Taliban and Al Qaeda affiliates to organize and deploy but Republicans had little choice but to agree with President Obama's decision-with a disclaimer. The President confined the additional troops to an eighteen month timetable, a limitation that many criticized. A recent large scale Taliban attack of about 300 troops left 8 Americans dead as Afghan troops fled and left the Americans to fend for themselves. The surviving U.S. troops were aided by air strikes which, combined with standing firepower, left approximately 150 enemy dead.

The mention of a timetable chafed at least one Afghan official, too. Segbattullah Sanjar, a chief policy advisor to Afghan President Hamid Karzai, told an Al Jazeera reporter that "We couldn't solve the Afghanistan problem in eight years, but now the U.S. wants to solve it in 18 months."

Some military analysts think the presence of additional troops is likely to draw Al Qaeda and affiliated insurgents out of hiding places in Pakistan. Pakistan believes that an aggressive U.S. troop surge will push Afghani insurgents into its Baluchistan province, compounding the difficulties for Pakistan. Most likely both views are valid, since the isolated border regions are the staging areas used by Al Qaeda and Taliban-allied forces to wage war against Alliance forces.

General McChrystal, commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, will use the additional troops to weaken the Taliban and Al Qaeda forces by means of a secure cordon stretching from the Pakistani tribal regions to Kabul. McChrystal expects the military pressure and a secure Afghani government will force a weakened Taliban to accept President Karzai's offer of negotiated governance, further isolating the "foreign" fighters.

U.S defense officials have abandoned secrecy in announcing an offensive that will soon begin. This announcement marks a departure from the usual military secrecy, and will give foreign fighters in Afghanistan time to plant IEDs and make other organization changes to adapt to the new ground conditions. Coalition military officials, on the other hand, believe that prior announcement of the Afghanistan surge and additional pressure will separate hard core from weaker factions.

General McChrystal knows he must produce both military and political successes. A recent Taliban attack on Kabul is an example of the importance of creating security for the Afghan state. Early newspaper reports touted the "bold attack" of Taliban forces on the capital. In reality, Afghan troops mounted an aggressive response to the Kabul attack and insurgent losses were heavy while only a small number of Afghani troops were killed.

While the attack on Kabul would seem to indicate a weak Afghan government, the lawless tribal areas where the insurgents hide is fairly close to Kabul. U.S., British, and Afghan officials complain that Pakistan is not doing enough to control the Taliban in its tribal provinces.

detailed the heroic efforts of a 15 man team of Marines who successfully integrated with residents of a village hamlet in Vietnam. "The Village" emphasizes the importance of winning over the local population, an initiative that had limited success in Vietnam.

The Vietnam narrative was popular with the American anti-war left when President Bush presided over two wars, but now comparisons are hardly mentioned by Democrats.

Sources: The following websites were used a supporting documentation of this article:

Al Jazeera.net at:

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/12/20091224151632707.html

Guardian UK:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/may/19/pakistan.alqaida

PBS .org website at: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/taliban/tribal/map.html

CNN.com at:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/12/04/pakistan.drones/index.html

Arizona Central News website at: http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2010/01/13/20100113marines-book0113.html