Afghanistan: Plan to Increase Security Forces Unrealistic

AFP reported November 22 (in a post on Google News) that a plan by the government of Afghanistan to significantly increase the size of its security forces is being labeled "too ambitious" by both diplomats and military experts.

The story says, "Afghanistan lacks the capacity to recruit and train men in large enough numbers, they said, despite a pledge by President Hamid Karzai to take over the nation's security from foreign troops by the end of his new five-year term. Defence Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak used a ceremony on Saturday in Kabul, where NATO took over command of Afghan army training from the United States, to announce that security force numbers would be cranked up to 400,000. 'Our programme is to have a total of 240,000 soldiers,' ministry spokesman Zahir Azimi told AFP, more than double the current total of about 100,000. The hope is to have 150,000 by the end of next year, he added, with the rest 'in following years'. Police numbers would rise to 160,000 from the current 97,000, said Zamarai Bashary, interior ministry spokesman, with the deadline 'under discussion'."

Skeptics say that Afghanistan lacks a sufficient pool of potential recruits as well as the infrastructure and funding necessary for such an increase. I would add that Taliban infiltration into the security forces is an equally tough challenge that will not be easily overcome.

A military attache in the capital, Kabul, is quoted as saying, "That means they will have to be raising trained soldiers at a rate of 3,000 people per month -- that's a very tall order. They will have to find more than 100,000 at least semi-educated young men who are volunteers to join the army. It will be difficult."

Of course, the funding required for such an endeavor would come from the United States and perhaps a few NATO allies. The actual conduct of the training could be done, as there has been no shortage of countries willing to provide trainers. But the real sticking points will be infrastructure and vetting. A lack of infrastructure capacity could be addressed by training Afghan security force recruits outside of Afghanistan, but the vetting is going to be a tough nut to crack. After decades of war, it's got to be hard to find suitable, non-tainted security force candidates.

The story continues, "NATO said that 800 troops, or three companies, graduated from an accelerated combat-training programme on Sunday, taking the Afghan army a 'step closer to meeting its goal' of extra troops. After their five weeks of training, the forces would be deployed across the country, NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said. Increasing police numbers involved similar problems to the army, said a Western diplomat, speaking anonymously."

And finally, "Out of the some 94,000 Afghan soldiers trained so far, 10,000 have deserted, said General Egon Ramms, commander of the operational headquarters in charge of ISAF. Some 15 percent are drug addicts, he said. The police, one member of which shot dead five British soldiers this month, are prone to corruption and their training has been inefficient, he said."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iMKdo7JuQfoL4cnVCADYS4GVaJuw