Airfares are an early sign of economic recovery

My partner and I travel a lot from our New York home. She's an archaeologist, which means not just trips to far-flung locales but a lot of travel to academic conferences. I attend science fiction and fantasy conventions to promote the pop-culture work I do.

For us, airfares are the easiest way to gauge the state of the economy.

While the economic turmoil hasn't made us comfortable, we've been lucky we haven't been particularly affected. In fact, we decided to take our first non-working vacation in years, thanks to the travel discounts we snagged when things were at their worst in January. We didn't know what was going to happen, but we were pretty sure we'd never see cruise rates that cheap again once the economy recovered.

Judging from the airfare for our trips to Atlanta, Minneapolis and Columbus, Ohio, we're sure the economic recovery is in full swing. While oil prices haven't skyrocketed again, travel prices once again look like they did a couple of years ago. Certainly, we've stopped crossing our fingers for round-trip airfare under $200. For Atlanta and Minneapolis, both hub-to-hub trips from New York City, it's looking more like $300.

I can't say we're thrilled. Because while fares going back up to normal levels indicates a stabilizing economy, airlines are desperately trying to make up for lost money.

Trying to figure out what airline is the best deal for us consumes a lot of time and, in some cases, makes it seem that airline prices are higher now than before the recession. So while the recovery looks like it's happening, I do wonder if the airlines have become overconfident about the speed and stability of that recovery.

While it's not the case for us, I can't help wondering if the first step in the recovery means people will go on vacation but stay with friends and family instead of in hotels.