Airline Woes Change Bargain-Hunting Rules

One of the bedrock rules of bargain hunting for air fares is to book early. Most travel experts recommend searching for an air fare two or three months in advance, and some endorse starting the search up to six months in advance. As I learned by recent experience, the widespread turbulence in the airline industry has made that rule unworkable.

Airline Turbulence and Travel Plans
The global recession has hit the airline industry hard, increasing the financial difficulties of many individual airlines. One result of those difficulties are route cancellations, affecting flights both inside the United States and around the world. If you plan a vacation based on flying three months in advance under current circumstances, the odds that some part of your trip will be disrupted by a route cancellation or consolidation are substantial.

I have experienced what the volatility of the airline industry can mean for personal travel plans firsthand. I have an upcoming 3 1/2-week trip in November, a trip that mixes work, vacation time and a visit with my family for Thanksgiving on an itinerary that includes two international round-trips and criss-crosses the eastern United States, with ten separate flights in total. I booked the flights for this trip in early summer, using frequent flier miles, online travel agencies and direct purchases from airlines. All ten flights have been disrupted over the last four months, with seven time changes due to consolidations and three flights that were outright canceled.

As a result of this 100 percent disruption rate of my travel plans, I've spent several hours on the phones reworking my itinerary, because in no instance was the flight I was offered as a replacement even remotely acceptable. I saw one-stop flights become two-stop flight with impossible schedules, and the lost time, long-distance charges and hassles involved far out-weigh any savings I made in booking early.

What To Do
Flight changes and cancellations are nothing new, of course, but what makes the current situation so problematic is that it is so widespread. So long as the global recession continues, the international airline industry as a whole will remain troubled and volatile. The farther out you plan your trip and book your flights, the greater the chance this volatility will upset your travel plans. The worst case scenario is a route cancellation made in the midst of your vacation, forcing you to argue with a booking agent or an airline when you should be relaxing.

This unpredictability makes bargain-hunting for air fares three months or more in advance a risky proposition for the middle term. Bargain hunters must balance the urge to buy early, discounted fares with the probability of a major flight disruption. Keeping that in mind, the best bet is to only buy outstanding bargains so far in advance, and otherwise limit purchases to no more than two months in advance.