AL Central Predictions

Starting Rotation

Kenny Rogers - 91%
Jeremy Bonderman - 107%
Nate Robertson - 104%
Justin Verlander - 85%
Mike Maroth - 110%

The Tigers starters have averaged just 99% of the League ERA so far in their careers. But if we use last year's numbers for Bonderman (90%), and Robertson (85%), the average drops to 92%. That's reasonable, as both look like they have finally learned how to pitch successfully last year.

Offense

The Tigers scored the 5th most runs, 822, and had the 7th best OPS, .777, in the AL last season. Considering the spacious park they play in, that is impressive.

Anchored by a solid rotation, and backed up by a fine offense, the Tigers should repeat as Central Division champs.

2) Chicago White Sox

Starting rotation

Jose Contreras - 94%
Mark Buehrle - 83%
John Garland - 96%
Javier Vasquez - 96%
John Danks - 4.20 ERA in minors

The White Sox starters have averaged 92% of the League ERA in their careers. Very good number, and a solid staff 1-4. Danks is a big question mark. He averaged a 4.20 ERA in the minors, and the White Sox will be fortunate if he can average that this year as a rookie. At least they didn't put Gavin Floyd in the 5th spot.

Offense

The White Sox finished 3rd in both runs, 868, and OPS, .806, in the AL last season. Expect about the same this year from essentially the same lineup.

The White Sox are solid in pitching and on offense. Should be a dog fight between them and the Tigers for the Central Division. The loss of Freddy Garcia will cost them.

3) Cleveland Indians

Starting rotation

C. C. Sabathia - 90%
Jake Westbrook - 99%
Cliff Lee - 101%
Paul Byrd - 95%
Jeremy Sowers - 80%

The Indians staff has averaged 93% of the League ERA so far in their careers. Sowers pitched well for them last year, and has a 2.00 career ERA in the minors. It's a solid, if unspectacular staff.

Offense

The Indians scored the second most runs in the AL last season, 870. And were 3rd in OPS at .806. The addition of Josh Barfield should help them do as well this season. Travis Hafner was the most productive player per at bat last season.

The Indians can score runs with just about anybody. They'll need Westbrook and Lee to step up and have big years this year if they are to compete with the top two.

4) Minnesota Twins

Starting rotation

Johan Santana - 70%
Carlos Silva - 99%
Boof Bonser - 94%
Sidney Ponson - 108%
Ramon Ortiz - 107%

The Twins starters have averaged 96% of the League ERA in their careers. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, a real artist out there. But the rest of the staff is mediocre to awful. Posnon and Ortiz?

Offense

The Twins ranked 8th in both runs, 801, and OPS, .771, last season in the AL. The emergence of Morneau, Mauer and Cuddyer last season was fun to watch. But the rest of the lineup is lacking.

Many people are picking the Twins to finish first or second in the Central, but I just don't see it. Not when you're relying on Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz for 40% of your rotation.

5) Kansas City Royals

Starting rotation

Gil Meche - 105%
Odalis Perez - 104%
Zach Greinke - 113%
Jorge De La Rosa - 131%
Brandon Duckworth - 132%

The Royals starters have averaged 117% of the League ERA in their careers. The worst number in baseball, by far. I know Brian Bannister was awful this Spring, but c'mon.

Offense

The Royals were 12th in runs, 757, and 13th in OPS, .743, in the AL last season. Adding rookie Alex Gordon to the lineup, and having Ryan Shealy for the full year should help a little, but this offense stinks.

The Royals are just a bad team. They are the only team in baseball without a starting pitcher who has averaged below the League ERA in his career. And their offense is no better.

AL Central Predicted Finish

1) Detroit Tigers
2) Chicago White Sox
3) Cleveland Indians
4) Minnesota Twins
5) Kansas City Royals