AL East Predictions

Starting rotation (followed by career percentage of League ERA)

Andy Pettitte - 84%
Mike Mussina - 80%
Chien-Ming Wang - 86%
Carl Pavano - 101%
Kei Igawa - 3.30 ERA in Japan

The Yankees starters have averaged just 88% of the League ERA in their careers. That is the lowest number in the American League, and second lowest in baseball (Padres, 85%). Igawa will likely pitch to at least the League ERA this year.

Offense

The Yankees scored the most runs of any team last season, 930. They also had the highest OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) in baseball, .824. All Star caliber players at every position except 1B. Barring injuries they will likely lead the league in runs again.

The second best percentage of the League ERA staff in baseball, combined with the most potent offense in baseball means the Yankees are the likely AL East champs again.

2) Boston Red Sox

Starting rotation

Curt Schilling - 79%
Josh Beckett - 92%
Tim Wakefield - 93%
Julian Tavares - 97%
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 2.94 ERA in Japan

The Red Sox starters have averaged 90% of the League ERA so far in their careers. Matsuzaka was the best pitcher in Japan, and should do at least as well. Very solid staff, barring injuries.

Offense

The return of Jason Varitek for a full season, combined with the upgrades of J. D. Drew in RF, and Julio Lugo at SS, probably means the Red Sox will score more runs this year than last. They scored 820 last year, good for 6th in the AL. Their OPS was .786, good for 5th place in the AL.

Barring injuries, they have enough pitching and hitting to compete with the Yankees, but will likely end up in 2nd place, with the Wild Card.

3) Toronto Blue Jays

Starting rotation

Roy Halladay - 77%
A. J. Burnett - 90%
Gustavo Chacin - 89%
Tomo Ohka - 90%
John Thompson - 97%

The Blue Jays starters have averaged just 89% of the League ERA in their careers. Solid and underrated staff.

Offense

The Blue Jays scored 809 runs last year, good for 7th in the AL. Their OPS was .811, which was good for 2nd in the AL. The addition of Frank Thomas should help the offense to do at least as well this year. But the lack of punch at SS and 2B is noticeable.

The Blue Jays have enough pitching and offense to compete, but the holes at SS and 2B mean they will likely end up 3rd.

4) Baltimore Orioles

Starting rotation

Erik Bedard - 91%
Daniel Cabrera - 106%
Jaret Wright - 111%
Adam Loewen - 119%
Steve Tracshel - 97%

The Orioles staff has averaged 105% of the League ERA in their careers. That is not very good, and certainly not good enough to compete in this division, or any division in baseball.

Offense

The Orioles finished 10th in runs scored last season, 768, and 9th in OPS, .763.

The Orioles simply do not have enough starting pitching, or offense to compete this year. They might have the best bullpen in baseball though.

5) Tampa Bay

Starting rotation

Scott Kazmir - 84%
Jae Seo - 98%
James Shields - 104%
Casey Fossum - 116%
Edwin Jackson - 128%

The Devil Rays starters have averaged 106% of the League Era in their careers. Kazmir is worth watching this year, but other than that their staff cannot compete.

Offense

The Devil Rays were woeful offensively last season, scoring the least amount of runs, 689, and the worst OPS, .733, in the AL. Finally getting Delmon Young into the lineup for the full season will help them score more runs, but not nearly enough.

The lack of quality pitching dooms this club this season. Even if the offense perks up, it won't help them much.

Al East Predicted Finish

1) Yankees
2) Red Sox
3) Blue Jays
4) Orioles
5) Devil Rays