Al Franken Has Edge Despite His Past Baggage

Last night as I usually do, I was checking the polls for the races in both the presidential and the Senate races. As I was checking those polls, I did manage to come across something that I thought was very interesting and that was the fact that Al Franken has now edged out Senator Norm Coleman in a head to head matchup. I know that only one poll has shown this but this is a very encouraging sign for the political comedian turned Senatorial candidate because everyone thought his campaign for the Senate was a joke like Stephan Colbert's campaign for president was a joke. But according to this poll that was released by Minnesota Public Radio, Al Franken has been able to capture the lead over Norm Coleman in the US Senate race in that state.

As we go through this article, I will be breaking down all of these numbers that this poll showed since this is the only poll that showed Franken leading in. But just the fact that Al Franken leads this contest now is miraculous, especially since Franken has managed to be really polarizing and not to mention controversial. He has managed to get a lot of criticism from the right wing such as Sean Hannity who didn't like that Franken written a book called Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot, since Hannity is good friends with Limbaugh. Bernard Goldberg even had him in his book, 110 People Who Are Screwing Up America and even went as far enough as to mention Franken on the title of the book because it went on to say in parenthesis that Al Franken was 37. Then Al Franken has had fights with Ann Coulter when he attacks her in his bestselling book Lies and the Lying Liars who tell Them and in the book mentioned her as a "nutcase." So there is no doubt that Al Franken has received his criticism throughout the years from conservatives and has really divided him with what some call his rude and cruel humor that he has with Republicans.

Of course none of these people could even compare with the fights he has had with Bill O Reilly, who is a commentator on Fox News and hosts the widely popular show called The O Reilly Factor. After all, at a book forum that was done on C-Span back in 2004, Bill O Reilly screamed at Al Franken to "shut up" and both of them got into it many times at the forum as both of them made their speeches about their books. Al Franken of course mentioned Bill O Reilly in his Lies book and talked about how O Reilly has lied about many things throughout the course of his show and it drew criticism from Bill O Reilly. Bill O Reilly did fire back on the TV and his radio show he has called The Radio Factor and mentioned Al Franken as a "secular progressive" in his hugely successful book called Culture Warrior. Of course there were many other instances where they have jabbed at each other since O Reilly often refers to Franken as "Stuart Smalley," who was a character that Al Franken played on Saturday Night Live when he did comedy skits for them and O Reilly referred to that name in the tense of his small height since Franken is a very small man. Then Franken fired back when O Reilly had that "Fox Security" moment on his radio show and basically mocked him when he had his own radio show on Air America Radio and had a whole joke about it. Al Franken even tried to intimidate O Reilly by calling his Air America Show the O Franken Factor since O Reilly and Fox did try to sue Franken for his slogan on the book called Lies that he used called "A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right," which O Reilly came out and said gave publicity to his book and gave him more sales. So it is no secret that these two have had their very long share of history of hating each other.

Therefore the question is how can a man who is as polarizing as him become the frontrunner in this US Senate race for the Democratic primary over another prominent name and even become the frontrunner and favorite to win the entire contest? Well, I have the hard core numbers to break this race down and to show you how Al Franken has done it. I think a lot of people have a good idea and it is with the change people and the people who disapprove of George Bush. Bob Schrum, who I find to be nothing more than a despicable human being actually said a good statistic that Bush had an 18% approval rating in that state. So the fact that Bush has such a low approval rating in that state shows that Al Franken is tapping into some of that frustration and is capturing a lot of support because of that. After all, the headline of why Franken was winning in those polls said "Franken Benefits from the Sour Mood in the Country." That is a really telling statistic for why Franken has right now edged Coleman despite all of the previous baggage he has carried.

Also in the poll, Al Franken clearly benefits on the economy, Iraq, and health care. Al Franken leads 44-37% among people who think the economy is the most important issue and it is to a lot of Americans all across the country right now. Al Franken is able to win on a wide margin among people who think Iraq is important. The margin for Iraq is 23 with a 55-32 margin. Finally on health care, Franken has a wide lead again with a 15 point advantage capturing 48% to Coleman's 33%. According to the poll as mentioned above, Franken does benefit from an anti-Bush and anti-incumbent mood since he holds a 53-29% margin among those voters. Finally, it had the tallies among women and men voters and Franken does really well. Franken holds a 44-37% lead among women voters and only trails a point among men voters with a 41-40% advantage to Norm Coleman. With all of those numbers, Franken should feel pretty encouraged with all of those numbers since they are the most important issues in the campaign.

However, there are some dark spots for Franken in this poll as well. For example, Coleman is able to capture his base and gets 80% of the party to support him. That compares to Al Franken who has 31% of the base still not pledging their support to him. Usually in the Senate elections, the base does matter and the fact that Al Franken has not been able to capture it like Coleman has is why this race is still close. Then the Independents split in Coleman's favor as well as he carries 45% compared to 29% for Franken. Also, Coleman does very well among people who think taxes are important. He crushes Coleman on taxes 60-24%, which is 36 points. Then Coleman picks up a strong evangelical base with a 31 point lead, which is no surprise since Al Franken is Jewish. Franken has also not captured that type of lead with people who are not evangelical since he has a 48-28% lead over them. So even though Al Franken has a lead, he still does have some work to do.

Still, Al Franken should be very encouraged by this new poll. After all, many people took his campaign to be a joke since he was a comedian and he in the beginning only got nearly 30% of the support. Now he has risen to the 40s and has even fought back to take the lead in the race. Al Franken has came from way behind despite the polarization factor and has captured the lead. Franken, despite having fights with very powerful people on the right has been able to statistically tied and now call himself the favorite and frontrunner in this Senate race.

It is still too early and close to call this Senate race because of the fair reporting I have done in that poll. I mean in my own personal opinion, you should be feeling pretty good if you are Al Franken. However, there are many areas where he needs to try to work on and that includes evangelical voters, people who think taxes is a major concern, Independents, and people who are not members of the evangelical church since he doesn't carry them as well. But the most important area that Franken has to work on is his own base. The fact that he only gets 69% of his own base is pretty troubling since Coleman has a strong unified base of 80%. However, despite all of those negatives for Franken, he is in a rather strong position right now because of how angry people are in the state of Minnesota. I mean if Bush gets 18% approval ratings in the state, then Coleman, who is in Bush's party has some problems to contend with and it usually is something Franken can use as a weapon. Franken has done that and is starting to tap into that anger as seen in the polls. After all, Franken has a huge lead among people who are anti-Bush and anti-incumbent. So maybe all Franken will have to do is run against Washington and the status quo and then he could win with people really fed up with the George Bush policies. Only time will tell but Al Franken is in a strong position and this poll shows that Franken is by far a formidable candidate despite a lot of woes he carries with him on the campaign trail. Who knows, maybe Franken will come out as Senator Al Franken of Minnesota. Anything is possible in the world of politics.

Sources:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=susZ2ceEHwk&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpOSgT-osHk&feature=related

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/02/01_senatepoll/senatepollresults.pdf