AL West Predictions

Starting rotation (followed by percentage of the League ERA)

Rich Harden - 81%
Dan Haren - 94%
Joe Blanton - 94%
Esteban Loaiza - 102%
Joe Kennedy - 104%

The A's rotation has averaged 95% of the League ERA in their careers. The three youngsters on the staff, Harden, Haren and Blanton, are also the best and can reasonably be expected to improve some. Kennedy pitched to just 52% of the League ERA last season in relief. He comes anywhere close to that number as a starter and the A's runaway with the division.

Offense

The A's were 9th in runs, 771, and 11th in OPS, .752, last season in the AL. They lost Frank Thomas and are replacing him with Mike Piazza. They need Bobby Crosby, Milton Bradley and Eric Chavez to be healthy this year.

The A's win with pitching and scoring enough runs. They have enough pitching this year, and should score enough runs to win this division.

2) Los Angeles Angels

Starting rotation

John Lackey - 92%
Kelvim Escobar - 91%
Ervin Santana - 103%
Jered Weaver - 58%, 3.00 ERA minors
Bartolo Colon - 87%
Joe Saunders - 116%, 3.47 ERA minors

Leaving out Weaver and Saunders, the Angels starters have averaged 93% of the League ERA in their careers. The Angels have a solid staff but some question marks too, as Weaver and Colon are currently injured.

Offense

The Angels scored 776 runs last season, good for 11th place in the AL. Their OPS was .759, good for 10th place in the AL. The Angels have Vlad Guerrero in the lineup, but after him the lineup is questionable and weak. Scoring runs will be a problem for them.

Too many question marks around this team's pitching, and not enough hitting to pick them first.

3) Texas Rangers

Starting rotation

Kevin Millwood - 89%
Vincent Padilla - 94%
Brandon McCarthy - 96%
Robinson Tejeda - 85%
Jamey Wright - 107%

The Rangers staff has averaged 94% of the League ERA in their careers. A lot of that is from Robinson Tejeda at 85%. That's over 27 starts in the majors, but his ERA in the minors was 4.03. If he and McCarthy pitch well this year, the Rangers can compete for the division.

Offense

The Rangers scored the 4th most runs, 835, and had the 6th best OPS, .784, in the AL last season. That's good, but they play in a great hitters park and need to do better to win the West.

Just looking at the numbers, the Rangers have the pitching to contend this year, but they are relying on two young arms in Tejeda and McCarthy. As those two go, so will the Rangers.

4) Seattle Mariners

Starting rotation

Felix Hernandez - 92%
Jarrod Washburn - 90%
Horacio Ramirez - 96%
Miguel Batista - 97%
Jeff Weaver - 104%

The Mariners starters have averaged 96% of the League ERA in their careers. Not bad, but not quite good enough to compete for the division this year.

Offense

The Mariners were 13th in runs scored, 756, and 12th in OPS, .749, in the AL last season. They essentially have the same lineup as last season, so it's hard to expect anything more this season.

The Mariners have some decent pitching, but unless Felix Hernandez really develops and has one of those 20-4 magical years, the Mariners do not have enough hitting to compete.

AL West Predicted Order

1) Oakland A's
2) Los Angeles Angels
3) Texas Rangers
4) Seattle Mariners