Albert Pujols for Ryan Howard?

So Buster Olney of the Worldwide Fearless Leader is now reporting a rumor that the Philadelphia Phillies are toying with the idea of trading Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols. Ruben Amaro is already denying it (methinks he doth protest too much?), which, of course, means that there is perhaps more substance to this than Olney is willing to admit.

Don't laugh.

On the one hand, it seems improbable on a cosmic level to imagine Pujols batting cleanup for any team other than the Cardinals. This isn't the Cubs trading a "who-knew" Lou Brock for a more proven veteran; this is trading Ted Williams in his prime.

On the other, current financial realities in baseball make moving anyone a possibility. Once upon a time, before free agency, Carlos Beltran probably would never have left Kansas City. However, having proved himself an elite player on a bad team, Beltran the free agent was able to ask a lot more than what KC was willing to pay and he found a taker in the New York Mets.

There are three parts to this: what the player is worth relative to the market, what the parent club is willing to pay, and what a potential suitor is willing to offer. A guy like Ryan Theriot couldn't price himself out of Chicago, even with some evil clone of Scott Boras and Satan representing him, because there's not going to be a market for his services. By contrast, the Tigers were not going to let Justin Verlander get anywhere near free agency; by giving him a lot of money two seasons before his current deal ran, they keep his services and his goodwill longer than if he'd gotten to his walk year. Verlander on the open market would likely have produced a number that the mathemagicians in Detroit couldn't conjure, so they headed off the market by anteing up now. (Smart move, by the way.)

But Albert Pujols?

He's baseball's best hitter right now. He is already better than former Cardinal legend Stan Musial, and Musial is only one of the greatest hitters ever. Ever. I won't bore you to death with stats (please go to the wonderful Baseball Reference, look up Pujols, and check my math), but the simple fact is that Albert Pujols for the first nine years of his career is better than Hank Aaron over the same period.

He plays first base, which means he could stay in the National League as a power-hitting umbrella stand (really, that's all Mark McGwire was defensively) as long as he wanted, and we don't even want to think of him extending his career as a DH in the American League.

What would such a player bring on the (semi) open market?

Whatever A-Rod's last contract was, Pujols will top it. Book it. Even if Pujols gave the Cardinals a hometown discount, we are still looking at upwards of $250-300 million for ten years. The absurd part of that would be the perception that Pujols left some on the table.

It sez so right here that the Red Sox or the Yankees (or, as is more likely, both) could put together packages in excess of $400 million...or more. It also sez so right here that whatever either team bids, it would still be a bargain to get Pujols swinging away in the band boxes either team calls home. How many dingers could Phat Albert hit in Boston? How many more could he hit in that video arcade/launching pad they are calling the new Yankee Stadium?

Without all that beer money to wave around, the Cardinals are already blinking.

(And don't think that this rumor isn't already playing in St. Louis, if, for no other reason, than to gauge fan reaction. Should the natives prove less than restless, expect Ruben Amaro and John Mozeliak to start playing phone tag very shortly.)

Thus, the Phils pounce.

They already have an attractive first baseman of their own in Ryan Howard. Howard isn't Pujols; he won't hit for Pujols' average. But Howard will produce a more-than-respectable average for a guy that is a mortal lock to hit 40 home runs per season...and, as Olney points out, Howard is probably more signable.

By signable, of course, I intend the ridiculous sums that Derek Jeter signed for, not the ridiculous sums that A-Rod signed for.

The Cardinals would still have to pay something much more significant than what they recently gave to Matt Holliday, but it wouldn't be what Pujols would get from one of those northeastern titans, meaning that Howard could look like a bargain (!!) at $200 million for ten years.

Again, this is just talk and likely to come of nothing...but I've laid out a pretty good case for why the Cardinals might actually pull the trigger on something like this. The simple fact is that they don't have the financial resources to outbid the Yankees or the Red Sox (or someone else with large amounts of disposable income), and they couldn't possibly let Pujols walk for nothing. But why would the Phillies do it?

They would do it to win championships right now.

Think about it: the Phillies are already the class of the NL right now. With hired gun Roy Halladay on staff, they could easily appear in the NLCS as currently constructed. Adding Pujols to that lineup guarantees them an October date with the American League champion for the next two seasons. He still walks (the Phillies aren't going to pony up that kind of money, even if Pujols supplants Michael Jack Schmidt in the hearts of the Illadelph faithful), but a serviceable first baseman (Howard returns?) will be on the market at that time. One always is.

Howard for Pujols, straight up?

Olney suggests that it could only happen in fantasy baseball.

I think that the truth may end up being stranger than fantasy.