Al-Qaeda in Iraq on the Ropes

A report yesterday by The Long War Journal says intercepted letters show that al Qaeda in Iraq has lost the confidence of al Qaeda's senior leaders, and that the terrorist group founded by Osama bin Laden sees the situation in Iraq as "dire."

Bill Roggio, writing for the Journal, says the intercepted letters were correspondence between Osama bin Laden deputy and al Qaeda number two man Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Ayyub al Masri, and al Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq head Abu Omar al Baghdadi. The letters were intercepted by U.S.-led coalition forces in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad earlier this year. The letters were reportedly found on al Qaeda in Iraq's information minister after he was killed by coalition forces.

The Journal quotes General David Petraeus as saying, "The letters confirmed our assessment that Al Qaeda has suffered significant damage and serious reverses in Iraq, including widespread rejection of

Coalition forces have been saying for some time that al Qaeda in Iraq was suffering terrible losses, and some analysts have said al Qaeda's senior leaders are shifting their focus from Iraq to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The intercepted letters contain scathing criticism of al Masri, the Journal says, describing him "...as an ineffective, rash leader who has cut himself off from al Qaeda in Iraq's field commanders."

The Journal says that estimates of foreign al Qaeda fighters making their way into Iraq reinforce the notion that the group is in decline. According to the article, from February to June of last year, between 80 and 110 foreign fighters were crossing into Iraq. That number dropped to between 12 and 15 from January to August of this year.

However, the Journal notes, General Petraeus is emphasizing caution: "No one here is doing victory dances in the end zone, as AQI

Iraq has become much more stable over the past year and a half, while Afghanistan, al Qaeda's base before the U.S. war on terror, is once again becoming a hot spot for al Qaeda activity.