Al-Qaida Leader Blamed in Bhutto Death, Control of Nuclear Weapons at Stake in Pakistan

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, whose family has been a political dynasty in Pakistan, has just been blamed on "al-Qaida leader" Baitullah Mehsud's orders, with the government citing "irrefutable evidence" of an intercepted phone call showing al-Qaida's intentions to destabilize Pakistan, reports the BBC. Harvard and Oxford educated Benazir Bhutto was expected to bring popularity and legitimacy to the elections in Pakistan, as former General Musharraf appeared to be trying to bring the country under leadership which would continue a strong relationship with the United States, rather than turning towards Islamic fundamentalism and isolation. One of the reasons that this is so critical, and why the large and powerful country of India, their neighbor, keeps close watch on Pakistan, is because whoever controls the government of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan controls the country's nuclear weapons.

According to Wikipedia, Pakistan is the sixth most populous nation, and has the second largest Muslim population. Like Afghanistan and other countries with a large Muslim population, a struggle between supporters of al-Qaida and Taliban-like leadership and more moderate political elements has resulted in continued violence and the spread of terrorism. This can have strategic implications as with the U.S. relationship with Turkey where the use of the country's location for military strategy might be affected, but the larger issue is Pakistan's own destiny, and those who will shape it. Since Pakistan joined the "nuclear club" of nations which have nuclear weapons, international attention has been sharply focused on its political future, in particular Pakistan's neighbors Afghanistan, Iran, India and China.

Since the movie a number of decades ago titled "The Mouse that Roared" about a tiny nation which dictated its terms to the United States, the expression has been used to describe a strategic advantage which a smaller country might have to influence world politics. Nations with significant oil supply, including Persian Gulf states and Venezuela, draw U.S. attention to their leadership because of the effect instability or threats of supply cuts might have. The specter of a mushroom cloud is still a powerful motivator, even if Pakistan's ability to use their weapons is limited. Given the fingers pointing at al-Qaida with its international operations, the situation might be more complicated.

Having seen the apparent reversal of the Spanish national elections after the bombing of the railways by terrorists, the Pakistani elections might be subject to the same kind of influence by extremist Islamic factions beyond former Prime Minister Bhutto's assassination. World leaders are already issuing messages such as President George W. Bush's words of encouragement and British Prime Minster Gordon Brown's condemnation of the assassins as "cowards." The ability of the assassins and those who support them to change the course of world events on a larger scale beyond Pakistani borders may depend on the international response, and the will of the Pakistani people to reestablish democracy.

"Bhutto Killing Blamed on al-Qaeda", http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7163307.stm

"Brown to 'Step Up' Terror Fight", http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7163327.stm

"Brown: Killers are Cowards", http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7161737.stm

"Pakistan", http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan