American Idol Season 8: Halfway to the Top 12

Okay, Gentle Viewer: We are at the halfway point, where choosing finalists is concerned. The third group of twelve from the original Top 36 will sing Tuesday night, and three more will make it through on America's vote. After that, twelve lucky hopefuls who had not made the initial cut will come back to perform for the judges in the "wild card" round. And when I say, "perform for the judges", that's pretty much exactly the picture, because those are the only people whose votes count that night. The judges will choose the last three contestants to round out the Top 12.

Singing on Tuesday are Ariana Afsar, Ju'Not Joyner, Kristen McNamara, Nathaniel Marshall, Lil Rounds, Jorge Nuñez, Kendall Beard, Scott McIntyre, Felicha Barton, Von Smith, Taylor Vaifanua, and Alex Wagner-Trugman. Who has a shot? Well, Ariana Afsar and Felicha Barton (who was not originally chosen but who replaced Joanna Pacitti when she was dropped) have no chance unless they can sing the rafters down, because we don't know who the hell they are. I don't think Taylor Vaifanua, the tall, exotic young lady from-where? Tonga?-and Scott McIntyre, the blind man, are actually very strong vocalists; I believe they got through mostly because they are interesting, and their performances will probably reflect that. Jorge Nuñez sings very loudly, but not as well as the other very loud singer, Von Smith. Von is undeniably good vocally, but he has to get over himself or he will alienate the voters, who already have Adam to fill the "theatrical" spot.

So that leaves Ju'Not, Kristen, Nathaniel, Lil, Kendall and Alex. Ju'Not and Kendall are good singers, but they will truly have to bring it to get past their lack of airtime. Alex is cute and a good singer, but he's probably too nerdy to be commercial, and he's probably not going to be able to keep his trap shut when the judges critique him. Kristen of the two-tone blonde hair and Nathaniel of the many headbands have already been a running joke as part of the Drama Fest of Hollywood Week, but both are good singers. Kristen is really quite an amazing singer, but Simon doesn't think she's pretty enough, so she'll be in the same situation as (I suspect) Mishavonna: She will probably be fantastic, and then she will receive wildly inappropriate criticism from the judges, who think Kendall is way prettier. Nathaniel has two major strikes against him: 1) He is flamboyantly gay and 2) He is kind of an asshat. It almost doesn't matter how well he sings at this point. Lil Rounds is a given, of course.

So who will make it through? Based on talent, I would put Lil as top female, Von or Ju'Not as top male, and, in a fair world, Kristen as third, but since the voting seems to be going Top Female, Top Male and Cute Boy, just make it Lil, Ju'Not and Von. Of course this is all subject to change once they open their mouths, because I would have had Jasmine Murray in the running before last Tuesday, so keep your fingers crossed for your favorites.

Speaking of Jasmine, I have one more thing to add: Leneshe Young, the girl who grew up mostly homeless, who had the really cool mom and who sang her own composition, "Natty", was robbed, pure and simple. The judges no doubt saw her as direct competition in the Young, Gifted and Black Teen category for their "commercial package", Jasmine Murray, and dispensed with her. You see how that worked out. And Jasmine, no doubt, commercial package that she is, will get more chances, maybe as many as she needs, but how many chances is Leneshe going to get? It's hard to have perfect hair and makeup when you're living in a shelter or a car, but she clearly has immense amounts of talent and intelligence. I pray that someone who has some influence in the business (maybe even Kara, who recognized her talent as a songwriter) will give her a chance to help her family out. And, please, don't think I'm hating on Jasmine! She's adorable and obviously also quite talented, and I don't think for a hot second she had anything to do with (or was even aware of) Leneshe's ouster. I don't even resent the judges; they do what they think is best for the business. It's just the situation that sucks, but I really hope that kid makes good.

Bat Rankings: The six singers who have made it through so far, in order of viability in this competition, and why:

1. Danny Gokey - good looks; nice personality; technical ability; emotional connection with the music; plenty of airtime to get to know his tragic backstory (dead wife); judges' pet
2. Alexis Grace - good looks; sweetie-pie personality; fantastic vocal ability; flawless delivery; decent amount of airtime; somewhat appealing backstory (single mom)
3. Adam Lambert -good looks; awesome vocal range; a little too musical-theatre still, perhaps; plenty of airtime; potentially troublesome backstory (professional Broadway performer); flat-out sexier than Danny, but does not display the emotional connection
4. Allison Iraheta -adorable youngster; silly personality but serious performer; impressive vocal ability; her backstory?-um, she's sixteen; has received very little airtime
5. Kris Allen - exceedingly cute; unexciting but proficient vocals; has the Archuleta Factor; just a dash of airtime; we know nothing about him
6. Michael Sarver - cute; great salt-of-the-earth personality; decent vocals; tons of airtime; appealing backstory (adorable family, dangerous job); has the blue-collar demographic sewn up, but is the weakest vocally

My guess is that the top three will stay the same, but that Kris and Michael will keep sinking farther toward the bottom as the other finalists are added. Allison stands to move down a notch or two, as well, if judges' clear favorite Lil Rounds is the phenomenon she's being billed as.

Who will return for the wild card round? That really depends on the criteria. Is it going to be four people from each of the first three nights? If so, because each night either had someone who tanked (Stevie Wright, Jeanine Vailes) or will have had someone tank (Jorge Nuñez? Scott McIntyre?), the remaining eight contestants have a fifty-fifty chance of coming back, in theory. But what if it is based solely on voting totals or on judges' personal preference? In either case, the twelve contenders could come in any proportion from the three nights, something Simon seemingly alluded to on Wednesday night when he said "a couple of " the contestants from that night would likely return. If it's according to voting, someone like Nick Mitchell, who annoyed the pee out of Simon (or so he claimed) but who probably had a decent fan following, could return. If it were up to the judges, someone like Jasmine, who the judges favored but whose performance was probably not rewarded by America, would come back. If it were up to me, I would pick four runners-up from each week. Week One's contenders would be Anoop Desai, Stephen Fowler, Brent Keith and Anne Marie Boskovich, and Week Two's would be Megan Corkrey, Mishavonna Henson, Matt Giraud and Nick Mitchell, bless his goofy heart. Picking backups based on my probable Top 3 finishers for Week Three (Lil, Ju'Not and Von), I would say Kristen, Nathaniel, Kendall and either Taylor or Alex. I'm still discounting the two girls of whom we've seen little, because as we discovered with Jeanine, there's generally a reason they haven't shown them. Stay tuned, and we'll see how well my Predict-o-Meter is working!