American Idol's Adam Lambert: Can He Win?

For American Idol 2009 fans, this will be a fight to the bloody finish to crown this year's enormously talented contestants. With tens of millions voting for their "Idol" victory, every week is a sink or swim performance from the ten remaining artists. Though we don't know the ratio of votes per contestant, we get a glimpse into the minds and hearts of the voters with the audience reactions. In a sea of 2009 crowd pleasers, one stands out that rocks the house: Adam Lambert. But, can he win?

Lambert has brought us a sophisticated level of "cool'" with his seemingly effortless, one of akind renditions of old classics. But his raw and jarring vocals, mingled with the essence of Led Zepplin's Robert Plant, may not capture the lion's share of votes as the number of contestants drop.

American Idol votes are tabulated in secret, careful not to reveal the percentages given to each contestant. It's suffice for us to know are they "safe", or "going home". With ten remaining players,twenty or so million votes will reveal the low score, plucking out the weakest link. This year's artists represent a wide range of musical talent from bluesy soul to powered-upbelchers. When America votes their favorite, it's also a vote against their least favorite.

Can Adam Lambert sustain himself to the finish line? He clearly embodies the stature and stage presence
of a great artist, but his heavy metal sound may not be a genre that will swing votes as the head count drops. Those voting for their smooth rock, blues, or powered-up contemporary vocalist must be swayed into Lambert's corner as their favorites are dropped. A consistance vote against Lambert, most likely will remain until the finish.

Do the math. Hypothetically, with a pool of 20 million votes, and a generous guess saying Lambert takes 25 percent of that vote, or 5 million "yea's", that leaves him with 75 percent, or 15 million against him.Two thirds of the vote goes to a traditional contemporary artist. As the contestant pool dwindles, what happens to the voters who prefer a softer side of music? Unless America makes a psychotic switch to the other end of the music spectrum, their vote is passed along to the "next of kin" in the genre they prefer. America votes for those who please them. When their favorite is gone, another in a similar catagory springs up to replace them. With the exception of Lambert, many of this year's contestants have a homogenous sound that will capture the same voting pool. The probability of Adam Lambert securing those votes is unlikely.

Regardless of this season's outcome, no doubt Adam Lambert is here to stay. He's a dynamic performer that's
worthy of praise, but, winning this year's Idol looks like a long-shot . I hope he proves me wrong.