An Excellent NFL Season Does Not Guarantee a Championship

In the 28 completed seasons since 1978 when the league expanded the regular season to 16 games, 20 teams have finished the season with 14 or more wins: 80 percent - 16 - have finished 14-2. Only 4 teams have finished 15-1.

In just the 10-year period between 1997 and 2006, 15 teams finished 13-3 - good teams, but a not-infrequent occurrence. 14-2 makes for an historic season, 15-1 ranks among the greatest seasons ever.

The first team to go to 14-2 was the 1978 Pittsburgh Steelers. It would be another 5-years before the next - the 1983 Washington Redskins - would do it again. That 1978 Steelers team squeaked by the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XIII, to be the first 14-2 team to win the Super Bowl. The next two 14-2 teams - the 1983 Washington Redskins and the 1984 Miami Dolphins - both were runners up in the Super Bowl.

Of the 16-teams to manage a 14-2 season, only 7 - less than 44 percent - have gone on to become Super Bowl Champion. In each of the last 3 NFL seasons, there has been a 14 game winner and only 1 - the 2004 New England Patriots - has even gone onto the Super Bowl. The 2005 Indianapolis Colts and the 2006 San Diego Chargers both failed to advance beyond the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The flip side, though, is that 11 of these teams have gone to the Super Bowl or just under 69 percent.

Of the four 15-1 teams, only the first two - the 1984 San Francisco 49ers and the 1985 Chicago Bears - even reached the Super Bowl. Both won. The 1998 Minnesota Vikings lost the NFC Championship game to a 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team and the 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers lost the AFC Championship game to the 14-2 New England Patriots. If you're a 15-1 team in the NFL, you will win the Super Bowl IF YOU get there, otherwise, you get bounced out in the Conference Championship. By the numbers, a team has a better chance of reaching the Super Bowl if their record is 14-2 at the end of the season, than 15-1.

Of course, when taken in aggregate, of these 20 teams, 13 - or 65 percent even - have reached the Super Bowl and 45 percent have won. As an interesting aside, the only time there was two 14-2 teams - 1998 - they met in the Super Bowl, this in a season in which there was a 15-1 team as well.

The moral of the story is that while a 14-2 season will enter a team into NFL History, a 15-1 season would be an elite performance, and either one leads to a better than average chance to compete for a championship, it is no guarantee of winning it all.

Sixteen 14-2 teams

1978 Pittsburgh Steelers *
1983 Washington Redskins **
1984 Miami Dolphins **
1986 New York Giants *
1989 San Francisco 49ers *
1990 San Francisco 49ers
1991 Washington Redskins *
1992 San Francisco 49ers
1998 Atlanta Falcons **
1998 Denver Broncos *
1998 Denver Broncos *
1999 Jacksonville Jaguars
2001 St. Louis Rams **
2004 New England Patriots *
2005 Indianapolis Colts
2006 San Diego Chargers

Four 15-1 teams

1984 San Francisco 49ers *
1985 Chicago Bears *
1998 Minnesota Vikings
2004 Pittsburgh Steelers

* - Super Bowl Champion
** - Super Bowl Runner Up