An Insider's Look to the New York Democratic Primary on Feb 5

I've lived in New York City my entire life and so I consider myself a so called "expert" on New York politics. At least that's what I think after watching so called political analysts and experts on television tell my that Hillary Clinton was going to lose the New Hampshire primary by 10 percentage points and that her presidential campaign was all but over. It seems these days that the only people to really get any kind of answer from are someone living in that area. That's exactly why you knew that if you asked a person from Iowa who would win the Democratic and Republican caucus, they would know better than a political analyst and so would a person from New Hampshire in talking about the Granite state's primary.

On February 5, the nation and much of the world will be watching the events of Super Tuesday unfold. Twenty-two states will be holding their primaries on that day and when the dust settles and the day is over, we should know who the Democratic and Republican nominees are. Few states are most important than New York which has the third most delegates, behind California and Texas. Most people naturally assume that New York will go for Hillary Clinton since she is after all, a Senator from New York. However, that's not necessarily the case. Other people think that Giuliani will win the Republican primary. Well that's not necessarily the truth either.

New York is one of the few states in the nation that has a closed primary. This means that only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary and only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. As for independents, sorry but they're out of luck and can't vote at all in New York during the primaries.

So who does the closed primary benefit? All indications point toward a closed primary greatly benefiting Hillary Clinton because she has won the vote in gaining more registered Democrat votes than her opponent, Senator Barack Obama. Obama has hurt Hillary Clinton by gaining much of the independent vote. Since independents can't vote in the New York primary, Obama won't be getting those potential votes.

Then there's the home field advantage that Hillary Clinton has. She is the Senator from New York but home field advantage hasn't always been kind to presidential candidates. Presidential candidate Al Gore would have president had he won his home state of Tennessee that he lost to President George W. Bush. Still, it's an advantage that Hillary has nevertheless. Women are also a strong factor and may vote for Hillary based on the possibility of her becoming the first female president. Women are also very protective of their abortion rights and Hillary is a strong advocate of that as well. Education is another strong issue in New York because the public school system is awful and has been failing kids for years under the No Child Left behind Act. According to just about everything that I have read on Obama and Hillary Clinton's education policies, they are about the same so neither candidate gets the benefit here.

One of the factors going in Obama's favor is that there is a huge young people population in New York and many of the state's young people are well educated and go to college. New York is also probably the most diverse state in the entire nation. There's a reason that the statue of liberty is in New York and that Ellis Island for immigrants is in New York. New York is the melting pot of the United States and the ethnic makeup of New York City is quite diverse. Upstate New York is pretty rural and predominantly white. However, New York City has over 6 million people and is a denser region than any other city in New York. In New York City there is a great deal of black, Hispanic and Asian people. Obama's strength is with Hispanics and blacks in getting them to vote for him.

When all the dust settles, I think Hillary Clinton will win her home state, due in large part to the fact that New York is a closed primary.