An Insider's Look to the New York Republican State Primary on Feb 5

As a native New Yorker, I think that I know about as much as anyone about New York State politics, especially because I am a political junkie and just can't seem to get enough of this exciting presidential race. As a viewer, it was frustrating watching the pundits and so called political experts all but write off Senator Obama several months ago, saying he could never challenge Hillary Clinton for the party's nominee. It was even more frustrating seeing the experts once again say that Hillary Clinton was going to lose the New Hampshire primary by ten percentage points according to polls, only to watch her on primary night beat Senator Obama by 3 percentage points. Therefore, you'll have to excuse me if I think that I might know a little more than the political analysts on New York State politics. On the Republican side, John McCain was left for dead by pundits a few weeks, only to see him win the Granite state over Mitt Romney.

The political geographic for New York is as follows: New York City is liberal and vote's Democratic while upstate New York is on the conservative side. Many people outside of the New York area believe that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will win the state of New York. However, that's not necessarily true. Let me explain.

New York City and New York State don't particularly care about political parties when it comes to local or even state politics. However, when it comes to national elections, particularly the presidential election, New York votes almost always for the Democratic candidate. This helps explain why New York had a 3 term Governor in George Pataki, elected Republican Mayor Giuliani for 2 terms, and elected Michael Bloomberg for 2 terms as a Republican after Bloomberg had switched parties. Now Bloomberg is an independent.

Giuliani was a hero to many New Yorkers because of September 11 but New Yorkers aren't blind or stupid and still remember the trouble with police that Giuliani had and his divorces. Giuliani has been married 3 times. In addition, Giuliani had many socially liberal policies especially when it came to hand gun laws and immigration. I liked Giuliani as a mayor because he was able to drastically reduce crime and clean up New York City from the mess that it was before he took over. Before he became mayor, the city was filled with drug dealers, alcoholics and prostitutes. During his term in office, he led New York City to become the safest big city in America, which I am darn proud of. However, with all that being said, Giuliani has reversed many of his positions because he has tried to appeal to his conservative party base. New Yorkers will know that and aren't stupid.

Now the question becomes, is there a viable alternative for New Yorkers to vote for in the Republican primary? Mike Huckabee is a Southern Conservative who appeals to evangelical Christians. In New York, there definitely isn't a strong religious right, eliminating Governor Huckabee's chances of winning the state.

Fred Thompson has some popularity because New Yorkers like his television show Law & Order but he is too conservative for many people, plus his appeal is to Southerners. Thus, Fred Thompson likely won't win New York. Further proof of this was the fact that he received about 500 votes in New Hampshire which is pretty close in the North East to New York.

This narrows it down further to Mitt Romney and John McCain. McCain did win New Hampshire and many New Yorkers do like McCain. He is a maverick candidate, similar to the Giuliani mold in that he is strong in foreign policy and terrorism. Plus, McCain sponsored an immigration bill that New Yorkers favored.

As for Mitt Romney, he definitely has a shot at winning New York. However, if Romney doesn't win Michigan, he won't stand a chance in New York By that time, Romney may have even dropped out. If Romney doesn't win Michigan, he might not even win a single state going into Super Tuesday which would mean his chances of winning New York would be lowered substantially.

Therefore, the battle for New York comes down to Giuliani vs. McCain. A determining factor some would say would be the fact that New York has a closed primary. This is important for the Democratic primary but not the Republican primary. (See my article on the Democratic battle for NY). McCain does appeal to independents and because Giuliani was a mayor in New York City that many Democrats and independents liked, party affiliation won't come into account. This will boil down to Republicans voting. As a native New Yorker, I find it very difficult to comprehend the fact that Giuliani could lose his home state but that's exactly what I'm saying here. Republicans want a candidate that could beat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama and they know that Giuliani can't do that. John McCain, the maverick candidate will carry New York and be the Republican presidential nominee.