An Islamist Government in Egypt Could Spark a Middle East War

COMMENTARY | According to Arutz Sheva, Israel National News, Islamist parties have won the majority of seats in the Egyptian parliament in the first round of voting in the elections to take place in the post-Mubarak era.

The Muslim Brotherhood alone controls 45 percent of the contested seats. Political analysts now believe that at the end of the six-step voting process, Egypt will have an Islamic government on the model of Iran, with all that implies.

Besides the imposition of Sharia Law in Egypt, an Islamic government is likely to break its alliance with the United States and its peace agreement with Israel and orient more toward either Iran or Turkey, the latter of which has been making moves to increase its influence in the Middle East. If these developments happen, things could spin out of control very quickly.

Israel, with no peace agreement with its largest neighbor, may feel obliged to seize the Sinai Peninsula, as it did during the Six Day War. As Egypt would likely resist this move militarily, a general Middle East War would result. Syria, either under the current Bashir Assad regime, or under a post Assad regime that itself may be Islamist, would likely join in. Other Arab countries, including Lebanon, Jordan, and even Iraq may be obliged to join in, with the support of Iran.

In short, a nightmare scenario is developing in the Middle East that would embroil the United States just as a new election cycle is in full swing, with an economic crisis and a military drawdown occurring as well. Past Middle East conflicts have been accompanied by oil price shocks, which would have a devastating effect on the economies of the United States and a number of other countries.

The only thing that could save the Middle East from such a calamity is the Egyptian military creating a coup and imposing a permanent military dictatorship. The paradox is that a military crackdown against what would amount to a democratically elected government would save hundreds of thousands of lives and peace in the Middle East, such as it is.

Would the Egyptian Army undertake such a move? It has every incentive to do so. An Islamist government would lose the generous aid that the United States has given Egypt since the Camp David Accords. The Egyptian military would be no match for the Israeli Defense Forces, which are generations more technologically advanced. The better part of valor may well be to turn the guns on the Egyptian people rather than on Israel, a horrible irony even by the standards of the Middle East