Analyzing the Election

As I sit here and write, the election has been over for a little more than a week. It comes as a welcome relief to many and a cause for rejoicing for many more. History was made this year. The United States elected its first African-American President, Barack Obama. Now that it's all behind us, the outcome decided, I want to take a look back and see what caused it to happen. Why did Obama win and McCain lose?

First, I do confess. I'm a Republican, and a conservative Christian one at that. But I write this article from an objective standpoint. I do not intend to promote any agenda here, bash any politician, or heap insults on any policy. Yes, the election didn't go the way I wanted it, but that's over. The people have spoken. I can live with it. But what made the election end the way it did?

Well, we have to first look at the sitting President, George W. Bush. A polarizing figure, President Bush has suffered in approval ratings over the last four years. It's just been stumble after stumble for Mr. Bush. So many scandals have come and gone. Granted, not all of it is his fault, but because it happens on his watch, he gets the blame for it. The Administration suffers, and that's the Republican Party right there.

With an unpopular sitting President, the opposing political party, the Democratic Party, just looks all the more appealing. Throw in the President's compassionate conservatism. What does that make? A recipe for Republican disaster. Why? Well, President Bush campaigned as a compassionate conservative in 2000 and won, narrowly and still controversially. That's the Republican base, the conservative, Christian-minded individuals. Securing the base is the key to winning a party's nomination. But now, eight years later, after so many political stumbles, the compassionate conservative looks much appealing. Can the GOP possibly stem that tide?

The best hope for the Republican Party was to find a candidate who could distinguish himself from President Bush, someone with a proven track record of breaking the Republican mold, working with the other parties. A maverick. Our best hope was John McCain, the Arizona senator who ran against Bush in the 2000 Republican primaries. Not exactly conservative and not exactly liberal, McCain had a hard time securing the base. Yeah, lots of folks loved him. He's a war hero, but his political record left some of us conservatives leary. He made up for this by choosing Sarah Palin as his running mate. But this in itself presented a problem.

The formula was backwards! Insteading of securing the base, then hunting the middle voters, the GOP chose a candidate who was more comfortable with independents then tried to secure the base. Can this formula really succeed? If executed properly, yes. But there's another party in the field.

Enter the Obama. After a gruelling battle with Senator Hilary Clinton of New York, the junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama secured his party's nomination. He ran on a platform of hope and change, which resonated with so many people nationwide. Having seen the blunders of the last four years, whether they truly be President Bush's fault or not, people were ready for change. To win, the Democrats only needed to paint John McCain as "more of the same," since by his own admission, he voted with President Bush 90% of the time. Add to that the Obama appeal.

Barack Obama would be the nation's first African-American President. To be clear, I do not believe this is simply the Race Card being played. This appeal resonates because it means that any one of us can make it there. Yes, you can come from very humble origins and become the President of this great nation. Yes, you can make a difference in the world. It's inspiring. It's exciting.

In spite of all this, however, the polls favored Obama by a slim margin. Then the US economy took a turn for the worst on September 15. Ten days before this, John McCain said the fundamentals of the economy were strong. Were he quick to explain that statement when September 15 hit, he may have survived. Unfortunately, this statement haunted the rest of Senator McCain's campaign. Obama reaped the benefits. Almost overnight, the polls in Virginia changed from swing state to "leaning Obama." Other states began to follow as the common man sought economic reform, another tenent of that change Obama offers. Controversies aside, it was the economy that killed that McCain's Presidential bid.

Republicans knew from the start that McCain needed to win all the states President Bush won in 2004. That would give him 286 electoral votes. After wave upon wave of economic bad news, several key states balked at McCain in the polls. I mentioned Virginia in the preceeding paragraph. North Carolina also turned. Ohio and Indiana began to show favor for Obama. In the end, when McCain needed all of Bush's states, Obama flipped at least nine of them. As I write this today, Missouri has yet to be called. That gave Senator Obama at least 364 electoral votes, clearly a landslide. Well, yes and no.

The election was a landslide only in the electoral college. The Popular Vote was much closer, about 52% to 46%. Not enough to call the election a clear landslide.

I admit. For me, Election Night was disappointing, but at the same time, not at all surprising. McCain fought an uphill battle from the start, and his opponent energized the right people. So what does this mean for John McCain? Well, essentially not much. The neat thing about this election was that whoever won, the opponent would still be a major figure in national politics. They were BOTH sitting Senators. Even if McCain had one, Obama would still be in the Senate. John McCain will simply return to the Senate and continue to serve this country the same way he always had. Some news outlets have predicted that McCain might become the one to help reach difficult agreements in the next four years. Who knows? In the past, he has contributed to bi-partisan cooperation. I think he might have a larger role in the Senate than he could have had in the Oval Office.

For the GOP as a whole, this is not the time to lie down in the dirt and cry. This could be a blessing in disguise for Republicans. This loss gives us time to reorganize, to rethink our platform. We can now get back to our base and work from there. A compassionate conservative couldn't have won this year. But in four years, we won't have a compassionate conservative sitting President. We won't need a candidate who must distinguish himself from an unpopular leader of the same party. It'll be simple opposition. Of course, President Obama may prove incredibly popular in this first term. If that's the case, 2012 is just a stepping stone for the GOP. It's a chance to try rising again, while really planning for 2016. We'll do what we can, but we may need to shoot, not to unseat Obama in 2012, but to replace the leadership in 2016. Either way, it's time to reorganize and recommit to our base ideals. That's where we've won in the past.

Finally, the partisan bashing needs to stop. This year was a Democratic victory, no questions asked. Obama made history. But this is not time to gloat. I have heard Obama supporters in my own community say, "McCain needs to go home and cry. They're a bunch of losers." I have been insulted many times when I mentioned my vote. This is not taking the high road. When Al Gore and John Kerry lost, I didn't say anything like this to the Democrats who lived around me. If I met one at the store, I never criticized them. It's just not proper.

I'm willing to give President Obama a chance. What choice do I have right now? Even though he wasn't my first choice, he's my President. He will receive from me the support and respect that title deserves, even though I do not agree with him on some things. Losing an election is simply losing an election. It's not the end of the world. The sun still shone when I woke up this morning.