Analyzing My NFL Analysis

Like most football fans, I'm very opinionated about both my team and other teams in the NFL. And, like most writers, I haven't been afraid to share that opinion with others; whether it is about a particular coach signing or a trade for a player. And, like most writers, I am wrong just as often as I'm right.

However, unlike most writers, I don't think it's right to state an opinion and, if I'm wrong, to forget it was ever stated.

So, now that the 2007 NFL season is entering its final weeks, I feel it's time to look back at the past, evaluate my predictions and learn from history so it doesn't repeat itself in the future.

I predicted the San Diego Chargers would miss the playoffs. I later softened a bit on this stance when the Chargers hired Norv Turner but, as of right now, this analysis seems to be incorrect. Though they aren't having a great season, the Chargers do hold the lead in the AFC West and that's all they need to get in the playoffs. However, I still have doubts they will win a playoff game.

I said the Dallas Cowboys made a good decision hiring Wade Phillips as their coach. Considering the Cowboys have a commanding lead in the NFC East, look to have at least a bye-week, if not home field advantage and are a favorite to represent the NFC conference I the Super Bowl, I'm going to say I was correct on this one.

I thought teams shouldn't pursue quarterback Jeff Garcia. Even though I do still feel he's not a long-term option, he has had a solid season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They look to be a playoff team and Coach Jon Gruden seems to have saved his job.

I said the Houston Texans were making a mistake by parting with David Carr and signing Matt Schaub. To be honest, I'm still not sold on Matt Schaub; mostly because he only has 9 touchdown passes for the 5-6 Texans. But, I have gained a new appreciation for why they got rid of Carr, considering he had the opportunity to be a starter in Carolina when Jake Delhomme got hurt, lost the starting job to journeyman Vinnie Testaverde and is now struggling to be even the team's second-string quarterback.

I actually thought quarterback Aaron Brooks would draw interest as a free agent. Way off on this one. The only news I've heard about Brooks is he had a recent tryout with the Green Bay Packers (a team that has had only two quarterbacks on its roster since the start of the season). But, he is still unemployed.

I thought the Bears were making a mistake by trading Thomas Jones. I'm going to say I was correct about this. Former first round pick Cedric Benson, who split time with Jones last season, is now on injured reserve. And, prior to that, he did nothing to show he could be the team's featured back. The weak running game is a big reason the Bears might miss the playoffs this year. Thomas, for his part, isn't having a great season with the Jets either. I think this shows both of these guys work better as a tandem than as a featured player.

I said the Atlanta Falcons were making a mistake signing Joe Horn to a big-money contract. I was right about this one. Horn has missed three games because of injury and only has 18 catches (no touchdowns) for the 3-8 Falcons.

I predicted receiver Kevin Curtis would prove to be a free agent bust with the Eagles. He isn't among the best receivers in the league but he hasn't been too bad this season either so I'll stand corrected on this; at least for now.

I thought quarterback David Garrard deserved to be an NFL starter. Just before the start of the season, the Jacksonville Jaguars named him their starter. While he hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard through the air (much like, Schaub, he only has 9 touchdown passes) and has missed time because of injury, Garrard has been very efficient on the field and has yet to throw an interception. I'm going to say I was correct with this opinion simply because, if nothing else, he's an upgrade over former starter Byron Leftwich.

I said the teams that finished last in their divisions last year had a chance to be successful this year. I even went as far as to say the Detroit Lions could be a surprise team in the NFC North. I was partially right on this one. The Miami Dolphins are actually worse than they were last year and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only team that finished last in their division last season to currently hold the lead the division now. But, the Cleveland Browns are still in the playoff race; as are the Detroit Lions.

I believed the Falcons made a good move when they signed quarterback Joey Harrington. I'm still a bit undecided on this one. Harrington hasn't had a great year but the team, in general, is doing poorly. I do think he is the best quarterback on the roster but he isn't doing what I expected him to do and will likely be replaced next year.

I didn't think quarterback Trent Green was worth trading for. Even though I do think Green still has a decent arm, the fact he didn't last 5 games before getting hurt again makes me feel I was right on this one.

I thought the New York Giants made a good decision retaining Tom Coughlin. It's too early to tell if the Giants are any better than they were last year; when they made it to the playoffs but were eliminated right away. But, they were able to maintain the status quo and, barring a late season collapse, should be in the playoffs again.

I thought Lane Kiffin was a bad choice for the Oakland Raiders. The offense has shown some improvement scoring 200 points through 11 games (the team only had 168 points last year in 16 games under former coach Art Shell). But, the result hasn't been much better; the team is currently 3-8 and looks to have a top 5 pick in the NFL draft next year. There are already rumors Kiffin may be unhappy in Oakland and might return to a college team next year.

I predicted Cam Cameron would get the Dolphins into the playoffs. Judging by this season's 0-11 start, at this point, I'm wrong. But, if you take the large number of injuries the team is contending with, it's too early to judge this one fairly.

I thought Mike Tomlin was a bad hire by the Steelers. As of right now, I was wrong on this one; or at least that's what the Steelers' 8-3 record tells me. This could change if he doesn't have the same long-term success other Steelers' coaches have had.

I predicted Ken Whisenhunt would fail to turn the Arizona Cardinals into a playoff contender. Early on in the season, I looked to be wrong. But, as of right now, the Cardinals are 5-6. Whisenhunt has four years to prove me wrong. But, for this year at least, I seem to be right.