Another Year of Predictability - AL East Preview

Of all the divisions in baseball, the American League East is perhaps characterized as the most despised of them all. Year in and year out, the division is seemingly dominated by the bottomless pockets of the perennial front running New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

However, recent years have shown that despite an obvious difference in resources, the division races can be thrown for a loop by the occasional upstarts in the division. For that reason alone, the American League East is never as cut and dry as the so-called pundits would have you believe, which also makes it one of the most exciting divisions in the game.

Baltimore Orioles

2009 Finish - 64-98 - 39.0 Games Back (5th Place)

These aren't your father's Baltimore Orioles. For that matter, these probably aren't even last year's Orioles, which should make the Baltimore fans that much more excited coming into this season. A team that has languished in recent seasons due to poor decision making in the front office, has finally found itself a course to set upon that has seemingly righted the ship and bodes well for the future.

In recent seasons, the Orioles have committed to their youth movement, and last season, they saw that the plan had its merits, as some of their young pitching talent reached the majors and showed that the future looks good, especially when it comes to their pitching staff. Young starters Brian Matusz highlights a group of pitchers that include Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen as staples of the Oriole staff for years to come. To complement the young trio, the Orioles maintained veteran Jeremy Guthrie and added an ace in Kevin Millwood to help mentor the young staff. How Millwood performs in the AL East is up for debate, but after a couple of seasons of playing in Arlington, he's likely up to the challenge. The young starting staff if flanked by a solid corps of relievers led by swing man Mark Hendrickson, set-up man Jim Johnson, and newly acquired closer Mike Gonzalez.

The youth movement doesn't stop with the pitching staff though. The line-up, anchored by All-Stars Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts, who the Orioles smartly continue to deny trade requests for, saw some fantastic development in 2009. Center fielder Adam Jones came into his own before a mid-season injury took a toll on his second half numbers, left-fielder Nolan Reimold made a run at the Rookie Of The Year award, and DH Luke Scott put up impressive numbers. To improve on a good thing, the Orioles added veterans to both corners, signing free agents Miquel Tejada and Garrett Atkins to provide more pop to the line-up, as well as experience. And that doesn't even say anything for a full year of stud catcher Matt Weiters, who after a solid rookie campaign, is poised to explode in 2010.

While the future looks bright for the Orioles, it is still likely a year or two before they are seriously competitive in a division that already has a strong three-team race going on. Regardless, any movement forward for Baltimore is a welcome sign for Orioles fans who are looking forward to a return to tradition.

Boston Red Sox

2009 Finish - 95-67 - 8.0 Games Back (2nd Place)

2009, while still another playoff year for the Red Sox, was still considered a down season, as the team plugged and played with the line-up throughout the season and perhaps overachieved before getting squashed in the playoffs. But for all the change in 2009, the 2010 Red Sox look to field a team that hasn't been seen in Fenway Park for years; one that exemplifies pitching and defense above an astute offense.

The offense is still anchored by the core of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez, but it has a decidedly tougher task of providing pop in a line-up that has to weather the loss of Jason Bay and deal with the quickly eroding skills of designated hitter David Ortiz. For its part, Boston focused on adding short-term solutions to take on some of that offensive burden by adding center fielder Mike Cameron and third baseman Adrian Beltre, two veteran hitters who have had big offensive seasons in the past, but were brought in more for their prowess with the glove than with the bats. The Red Sox also sought to slow down the revolving door at shortstop by signing Marco Scutaro, who will need t prove that 2009 wasn't a fluke, to a two year deal. But in the long term, the signings of Cameron, Beltre, and Scutaro fit into the plan to bridge the gap to talented prospects such as Jose Inglesias, Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Westmoreland.

As mentioned before, Boston concentrated its off season on improving in the run prevention department. That is quite prevalent in the construction of the 2010 pitching staff. Anchored by double-aces Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, Boston upped the ante for 2010 by signing top free agent pitcher John Lackey to a five-year deal. Added to a rotation that will also feature young starter Clay Bucholtz and some mixture of Daisuke Matsuzaka and ageless knuckle ball hurler Tim Wakefield, the Red Sox may have the deepest rotation in baseball. However, Boston does have its issues in the bullpen, where middle relief could be a problem in getting the ball to closer Jonathan Papelbon and set-up men Daniel Bard and Hideki Okajima. Second half struggles of Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez, and the health of newly acquired Boof Bonser cast a strange shadow on the first arms out of the pen.

The talk of the off season has been whether or not Boston will be able to score enough runs in the rough and tumble AL East. Certainly, they will miss the production of Jason Bay, but for all intensive purposes, the additions of Cameron and Beltre should manage to approximate his numbers in 2010. Still, Boston has the look of a team built to win another Wild Card rather than challenge for a division title.

New York Yankees

2009 Finish - 103-59 - (1st Place)

There is no team in baseball that better exemplifies the phrase "The Buck Stops Here" more so than the New York Yankees, and in 2009, those Yankees rode that buck all the way to their 27^th World Series championship, making sure they won at least one before the end of the decade. Interestingly enough, the Yankees were fairly quiet during the off season, making only a few moves to help maintain a championship squad.

Offensively, it is hard to argue that this is perhaps the most dangerous line-up in the game, with their only real weakness being their number nine hitter. As mentioned above, the Yankees were fairly quiet this off season, choosing not to add to their spending spree in 2009. Instead, they went out and pulled off a coup by landing center fielder Curtis Granderson in a three-team trade with Detroit and Arizona. In bringing in Granderson, the Yankees simultaneously improved their outfield defense, while adding a solid left-handed hitter to the middle of their line-up to take advantage of the short porch in right field of the new Yankee Stadium. Surround him with the bats of Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Mark Texeira, Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher, Jorge Posada, and Nick Johnson, and it would be easy to see this team being labeled the new "Murderer's Row", especially in that ballpark.

The starting rotation is where the Yankees spent their money in 2009, and it helped to bring them a championship, although it did so despite being just a little bit better than adequate. Sure, CC Sabathia was what the Yankees expected him to be, but AJ Burnett proved to be inconsistent and mediocre as a number two starter, Andy Pettitte showed his age, and the team was forced to plug in various other starters in the four and five spots to deal with injuries and innings limits on Joba Chamberlain. To combat that, the Yankees decided to make a trade with Atlanta and give Javier Vazquez another shot in New York. By all means, he'll be an improvement for them, and should be more comfortable on a team where he is being asked to be nothing more than a number four starter. The bullpen, led by closer Mariano Rivera and 2009 star Phil Hughes should be a bright spot for the team, although, like the Red Sox, also has questions in regards to middle relief.

Make no bones about it, no matter how despised a team the Yankees are, they are the team to beat in the American League East, if not in all of baseball. Oh, and they are most likely a better team than they were a year ago. It's a scary picture for the rest of the league.

Tampa Bay Rays

2009 Finish - 84-78 - 19.0 Games Back (3rd Place)

While it would be easy to look at Tampa as having declined in 2009, it's also safe to say that they had a successful season. Sure, some people would scoff at thinking a third place team was successful, but given that they were coming off a trip to the World Series the previous year, coupled with the improvements made by both the Yankees and the Red Sox last season, the Rays still managed to have a winning season in baseball's toughest division, something they have never done in consecutive seasons before last year. With that said, it must have been a comforting thought to know that the current roster, as well as the team's farm system were stocked with talent that would help them stay competitive in 2010 and beyond.

Offensively, the Rays set a club record by scoring 803 runs in 2009, showing that they are capable of hanging with the big boys in the division. The club will look to take advantage of what may be their last season with star left fielder Carl Crawford, who is looking at a big payday when he becomes a free agent next winter. Having Crawford and shortstop Jason Bartlett setting the table for the big sticks of Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Pena is a huge plus for the Rays. Of course, they'd also like to see a bounce-back campaign from center fielder BJ Upton, who battled through injuries and lackadaisical play in 2009 to produce his worst season. The Rays also brought in Kelly Shoppach, in a trade with Cleveland to help shore up the offense out of the catcher position, and free agent Hank Blalock to platoon with Pat Burrell at designated hitter, so offensively, the Rays should have no issues in 2010.

For all the talk about the young pitching in Baltimore, the Rays seem to have a never-ending train of prospects ready to take the leap. Last season it was David Price, who had some inconsistent results in his rookie season, and Jeff Nieman, who went 13-6 in his first full season. In 2010, the rotation will feature another promising arm in Wade Davis, who looked solid enough in six late season starts last season to justify the trade of Scott Kazmir at the trade deadline. The trio of young pitchers will be lead in the rotation by holdovers Matt Garza and James Shields, who have both proven to be efficient workhorse pitchers, if not quite ace material. Where Tampa fell back in 2009 was the bullpen, which didn't have a solid option at closer until JP Howell was moved into the role at the end of the season. However, Howell is at his best as a set-up man, so the Rays traded for former Brave Rafael Soriano to take on the role in 2010.

Still, with all their talent and promise, the Rays will need some help from the Red Sox and Yankees in order to compete for a playoff spot in 2010. While they may be the third best team in the American League, they are also the third best team in their division, which in the end will cost them a playoff spot when October rolls around.

Toronto Blue Jays

2009 Finish - 75-87 - 28.0 Games Back (4th Place)

Last season was a major disappointment for the Blue Jays, who thought that they had the talent to compete, but they quickly fell off the pace in the AL East and became easy pickings for the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays in their head-to-head match-ups. That slip spelled the end of the JP Riccardi and Roy Halladay eras in Toronto, as the former was relieved of his GM duties and the latter was sent to Philadelphia in return for prospects to aid in the rebuilding project.

On the offensive side of the ball, Toronto saw some good and some bad trends develop. Both second baseman Aaron Hill and designated hitter Travis Lind jumped out to career years, but the remainder of the offensive became stagnant. Big money deals continued to plague the Blue Jays, with Vernon Wells continuing to regress, and Alex Rios getting his ticket out of town via release when he slipped tremendously. Wells is still in town and will look to rebound once again, but the Blue Jays are committed to Jose Bautista in right field in 2010 to replace Rios. The Jays will also be looking for more from top prospect Travis Snider, who didn't appear ready in 2009 despite being handed the job in left. However, the team will likely be looking to move first baseman Lyle Overbay and perhaps third baseman Edwin Encarnacion in order to continue to free up money and build up the farm system.

Pitching is what doomed Toronto in 2009, as Halladay was the only pitcher to stay healthy, with starters Dustin McGowan, Shawn Marcum, and Jesse Litch all spending significant time on the disabled list, forcing the team to piece together its starting staff for most of the season. In 2010, the Jays will be looking at the return of Marcum, who missed all of 2009, as well as continued development of Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil. As part of the Halladay trade, the Blue Jays brought in Brandon Morrow from Seattle and will look to the once touted prospect to be an integral part of the rotation, but Morrow must prove that he can take the work load of a full-time starter first. As far as the bullpen is concerned, Toronto has a bevy of relievers that will likely be flipped to other teams throughout the season, with Jason Frasor and Scott Downs being on most teams wish lists.

As of this writing, Toronto is a team with a direction, but given that they are starting at the very bottom of a rebuilding project that was badly needed, it is likely that the next few seasons will be very lean years for Blue Jays fans. 2010 is not likely to be pretty by any accounts, but the team can rest knowing that they are doing what is good for the long term prospects of the organization.

Projected Finish

1.) New York Yankees

2.) Boston Red Sox

3.) Tampa Bay Rays

4.) Baltimore Orioles

5.) Toronto Blue Jays

Sources:

AL East Standings, MLB.com

Baltimore Orioles, MLB.com

Boston Red Sox, MLB.com

New York Yankees, MLB.com

Tampa Bay Rays, MLB.com

Toronto Blue Jays, MLB.com