Are the Odds on Your Side?

Are you a person who enjoys statistics and defying the odds? Do you listen to the traffic report before heading out for the day and then take the route with the best odds of avoiding an accident? Do you plan your vacations based on your odds of the best weather? Do you play casino games with the best odds and play according to the "book"?

If you answered yes, you probably share statistical trivia with anyone who will listen, and could use this recap of some interesting "odds" for your next social event!

Common "Odds" We Worry About:
Whenever I strap on my seat belt and hear the airplane engines rev up, a fleeting thought passes through my head: "What are the odds of my flight ending badly?" When I hear a news report about someone dying in an unusual manner, I think: "What are the odds of that?" And after all the deadly tornadoes this year, I can't help but wonder if I should buy a pair of ruby slippers, just in case. Here are a few lifetime odds many of us nervously ponder:

-Being in a Plane crash: 1 in 9.2 million (top airlines) or 1 in 843,744 (airlines with worst safety record)
-Dying in a car crash: 1 in 83
-Identity theft: 1 in 4
-Being struck by lightning: 1 in 835,500
-Dying in a killer tornado: 1 in 60,000
-Dying in an earthquake: 1 in 131,890
-Being threatened by a nuclear plant accident: 1 in 100,000
-Being murdered: 1 in 18,000
-Dying in a fire: 1 in 325
-Drowning: 1 in 8,942
-Dying from cancer: 1 in 7
-Dying from heart disease: 1 in 5
-Being caught in a hurricane: This depends on the area and year. In 2006 New Orleans was given a 30% chance of being hit again after Hurricane Katrina. (Check your city's odds here: HGTVpro.com)

Odd "Odds":
Do you worry about the strangest things? Are you blown away by the weird things that happen around us and wonder how anyone thinks they can get away with drowning their ex-wife in the bathtub and having the cops believe it to be an accident? Here are the odds of some of the more bizarre events ever happening to one of us:

-Chances a falling satellite will hit someone: 1 in 3200; Chances that someone will be YOU: 1 in several trillion
-Being hit by a meteorite: 1 in 700,000
-Dying by bee sting: 1 in 71,623
-Dying by fireworks: 1 in 615,488
-Being attacked by a shark: 1 in 11.5 million (killed by one -1 in 300,000,000)
-Dying in a Tsunami: 1 in 500,000
-Drowning in a bathtub: 1 in 685,000
-Dying from SARS in the U.S.: 1 in 100,000,000
-Being considered possessed by Satan: 1 in 7,000
-Being injured by a chainsaw: 1 in 4,464
-Spotting a UFO: 1 in 3,000,000

Long Shots We Hope Will Happen:
In spite of the odds, we often hope to overcome them. Have you ever wished for any of these long shots?

-Being dealt a royal flush on a video poker machine: 1 out of 42,000 hands after the draw, 1 out of 649,740 on first deal
-Being dealt a royal flush playing Texas Hold'em: 1 in 649,740 (Watch this happen during a world series poker tournament on this YouTube video!)
-Winning the Mega Millions Lottery: 1 in 175,710,000
-Bowling a 300 game: 1 in 11,500
-Getting a hole in one: 1 in 5,000
-Dating a supermodel: 1 in 88,000
-Spawning a genius child: 1 in 250
-Becoming a movie star: 1 in 1,505,000
-Becoming the President of the United States: 1 in 10,000,000

There are many resources for finding these odds, and some are conflicting. However, all of them reflect an overwhelming fact: That we often worry about the ones in our favor and ignore the short odds. Right now, I'm wondering what the odds are that someone will find this article in cyberspace and read it!

References and Resources:

Livescience.com: "The Odds of Dying"
Reasons.com: "Don't be Terrorized"
Kgb.com: "kgb answers"
Global-lottery-review.com:"Mega Millions"
Chacha.com
Bookofodds.com -
Lightningsafety.noaa.gov: "Medical Aspects of Lightning"
F2: "The Odds"
Msnbc.msn.com: "What's behind our conflicted feelings on nukes?"
Discovermagazine.com blog: "Death by Meteorite"
Casinocitytimes.com:Gaming Guru John Robison
Divine Caroline: "What are the odds?"