Are the Patriots Running Up Scores?

A quick read through sporting message boards and one will find a great deal of anger and animosity toward the New England Patriots for running up scores. I'm a long time Patriots fan - I lived through the abysmal 1990 season at 1-15, the 2-14 seasons, all that.

That said, I'm slowing becoming convinced that Patriots' coach Bill Belichick is running up scores in a bit of a Flying Fickle Finger of Fate, emphasis on finger, to the NFL. On the one hand I agree, "if you want to keep the score down, stop me." On the other, there does seem to be an edge here at work.

One of the most common sentiments is that the 2004 edition, Peyton Manning/Tony Dungy led Indianapolis Colts were not "running up the score" on opponents while setting those touchdown scoring records. There's only one way that happens: your opponents score.

Now, it's true, when Peyton and the Colts were setting all kinds of scoring records and winning 51-24 (Titans), 41-9 (Lions), and 49-14 (Texans) no one was griping about them running up the score. Here's the difference though - that team went 12-4 and they were 30th in team defense, giving up just under 22 points a game. When they started in on that run, they had already lost 3 games. They finished 2004 2nd in overall offense and on the wrong side of the score in the AFC Championship game. During this run, the Colts were averaging 59.6 offensive plays a game and allowing 62.3. Besides all that, who doesn't like Tony Dungy?

No one called the Patriots out in 2004 for running up the score either; they had their moments. 29-6 (Buffalo), 40-22 (St. Louis), 42-15 (Cleveland), but they were not putting on the clinic that they're putting on in 2007. This year, The Patriots have literally stomped every one of their opponents, winning by at least 17 points and scoring at least 34 - apparently invincible. In 2004 they had lost a game - Halloween night, ending the 21 game winning streak - before they had starting scoring with some authority. The Pats finished 7th in offense that year, but 9th in defense, and were on the correct side of a lopsided score in that aforementioned Championship game en route to winning Super Bowl XXXIX.

After 8 games, The Pats are 1st in overall offense in 2007, and 12th in defense. They are averaging 66.5 offensive plays a game and are scoring 41.4 points a game; defensively, they're allowing 53.4 defensive plays a game and 15.8 points. The Colts are fourth in offense and third in defense scoring 32 points and allowing 14.6 after 7 games in 2007.

Both teams have laid some serious beat downs on their opponents: Colts v. Saints - 41-10; Colts v. Broncos - 38-20; Patriots v. Redskins - 52-7; Pats v. Bills - 38-7. Average margin of victory: Colts 18.1; Patriots 25.5. Median margin of victory: Colts 19; Patriots 24.

Look at these numbers:

RUSHING
2004 Colts (16 games) - 427 rushing attempts
2007 Pats (8 games) - 259 rushing attempts
Average:
'04 Colts: 26.69 rushing attempts/game
'07 Pats: 32.38 rushing attempts/game

PASSING
2004 Colts (16 games) - 526 passing attempts
2007 Pats (8 games) - 273 passing attempts
Average:
'04 Colts: 32.88 passing attempts/game
'07 Pats: 34.13 passing attempts/game

'04 Colts: 9.00 Yards per attempt
'07 Pats: 9.06 Yards per attempt

The fact is that Brady is more accurate this year (74%) than Manning was in 2004 (67%) and the Pats defense is better than the 2004 Colts. In terms of going long, there's no difference in those yards per attempt numbers - except the fact Brady is more accurate is is completing more passes, more often, meaning he's not going as deep as often as Manning did in 2004. And the Pats have on average run the ball MORE on average than that 04 Colts team.

The big difference between the 2004 Colts and the 2007 New England Patriots? Those numbers of plays allowed per game. The difference of the 54 plays the Pats are allowing their opponents and the 62 the Colts did in 2004 is time off the clock and opportunities for the opposition to score. The 2007 Colts are winning and winning big, but they're not putting up the record breaking pace the Patriots are and it's that record breaking pace, that rubs the fandom the wrong way.

Yeah, Bill's probably ratcheting it up a bit, but I'm not entirely sure he's out of control. This Patriots team has a better defense than that record setting Colts team, allowing the ball back into Brady's hands more frequently. Combine that with a more accurate quarterback, and you're looking at a devastating football team.

REFERENCES

PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE, 2004 Indianapolis Colts, URL: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt2004.htm

PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE, 2004 New England Patriots, URL: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe2004.htm

PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE, 2007 New England Patriots, URL: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe2007.htm

PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE, 2007 Indianapolis Colts, URL: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt2007.htm