Arlen Specter: Democrat

What does it take to convince the fifth most senior Republican in the United States Senate to switch parties? Summing it up in one word doesn't do it justice, but Senator Arlen Specter's word seems to be quite simple: stimulus.

"It has become clear to me that the stimulus vote caused a schism which makes our differences irreconcilable," says Specter in a statement on his 2010 re-election website¹. "On this state of the record, I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate. I have not represented the Republican Party. I have represented the people of Pennsylvania."

Specter joined the Republican Party in 1966, but claims he was always more of a centrist than a right-winger. But his stance may have more to do with the views of his constituents than of his own. "Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans."

What does this mean for the Republican party? Losing Specter may end up becoming a tipping point for the troubled GOP. The far right might bash Specter's decision, and this might drive more moderate Republicans further toward the center. We may see more Republicans abandoning their party to become Democrats or Independents, further preventing Republican fillibusters. As the extreme elements of the Republican party (and those pundits who fuel them, like Limbaugh or Hannity) shove against Specter's decision, it's going to create a gap in the floor, and moderate Republicans will more than likely slip through that gap. Where will they land? Only time will tell.

But here's another question: What does this mean for the Democratic party? That remains unclear. "My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords' switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change."

_{1 - http://www.specter2010.com/news6.html}