What Does the Santorum Sweep Really Mean?

COMMENTARY | Tuesday, Feb. 7, saw the first multi-state primary/caucus of the 2012 GOP internal election. While the event spanned multiple regions, all delegates won were non-binding, meaning the results will not determine which candidate receives delegates at the Republican National Convention in August. This, however, does not render last night's standings completely insignificant. As followers of the election process have noticed, winning a state, or even securing second place at an important caucus, can reinvigorate a slumping campaign.

This certainly was the case for Rick Santorum, who pulled ahead in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri last night. But to what extent will that unlikely victory shift the nature of Republican strategy?

Rick Santorum

Of all the candidates, it's fair to say that Santorum has the most to gain from Tuesday night's results. After coming in last place in Nevada and showing no real improvement since Iowa, the candidate was beginning to fall behind the Romney and Gingrich duopoly. With a resounding victory last night, it is likely his campaign will see an increase in donations and support unprecedented for his organization. It is uncertain, though, whether to expect him to usurp Romney in the long-term race. The GOP electorate has only consistently embraced Romney, supporting other candidates sporadically at best. To truly capture and take advantage of this win, Santorum will have to minimize his far-right social outlook and emphasize his more broadly supported economic agenda.

Mitt Romney

It would appear that every time he turns his back on the intra-party competition, Mitt Romney pays for it at the ballot box. After winning last Saturday, Romney set his sights on Obama in another attempt to get a head start on his general election bid. But with Tuesday's unexpected turn of events, voters may be warning the former governor not to get too ahead of himself. While it's possible this recent shock is yet another example of half-hearted voter rebellion against the standing front-runner, Mitt has good reason to fret. For Romney, focus on the task at hand is key in getting through the primary phase successfully.

Newt Gingrich

Still expecting a late game surge is Gingrich, who came in last place in Minnesota Tuesday. While he seems dedicated to being slightly less negative moving forward, whatever his current strategy is will require a bit of tweaking if he is to resonate with voters. The former speaker has expressed confidence in his chances at Tea Party hotspots, and his best option may be to pander to these kinds of constituents and concede the establishment vote to Romney.

Ron Paul

It's unclear that Paul's campaign will be affected by Tuesday night's results. As always, this bold and idiosyncratic candidate has elicited moderate, but hardly overwhelming support. Whether his goal be to spread a message or become the nominee, Paul will have to continue mobilizing his youth base and focus on widening his support group, convincing older voters to share his ideals. Despite being the only remaining candidate without a win to boast, it would be unwise to count anybody out in this unpredictable primary contest.