Assessing the Nuclear Threat

Ever since the World War II nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, the United States has been paranoid that such hasty and devastating attacks will one day reach American soil. The combined death toll of both the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings were estimated to be between 100,000-200,000 civilian deaths, with more in later years as the result of radiation poisoning (The Manhattan Engineer District 12). In total, the yield (amount of explosive energy produced) from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings was between 25-35 kilotons (Glasstone and Dolan, secs. 1.20-1.21). Since then, nuclear devices such as the Tsar Bomba (a 50 megaton Soviet Union produced nuclear bomb) have been created, which produce a yield nearly one thousand times larger than the combined yield of both bombs used by the United States during World War II. With the advancement of nuclear technology-to the point where the entire United States could be decimated in one fowl swoop-the question on most people's minds is: what are the chances of a nuclear device falling into the wrong hands?

To accurately assess the threat of a fringe terrorist group acquiring a nuclear weapon, it is vital to understand the threat of a nuclear attack, both during and after the Cold War-a period of political tension between the Soviet Union and the United States. The US bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki may have ended World War II, but with one conclusion comes a new beginning. Both the United States and the Soviet Union became world super powers as a result of WW2, and with two political systems that were extreme ideological opposites of each other, it is of no surprise that the two nations found themselves in a bitter rivalry for world supremacy. With the world crippled, both the US and USSR began an industrial, economic and militaristic sprint to become the world's strongest super power. The United States was petrified by the idea of Communism spreading to many of the wounded nations affected by the six years of fighting during WW2 (Coffin and Stacey 975-984)

Nevertheless, shortly after WW2, negotiations on how to divide the nations liberated from Nazi rule resulted in acescent attitudes, eventually leading the Soviet Union to organize "people's republics". Through political and military pressure, these Soviet backed republics formed coalition governments, which allowed Communism to spread throughout Eastern Europe. The demise of numerous democratic systems, as a result of the war, made it easy to establish communist based dictatorships in most of Eastern Europe. As, "an Iron Curtain descended across Europe," the United States, along with Western European allies, formed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), guaranteeing a joint military response to the attacker of any NATO nation (977-978).

In addition to the formation of NATO, the United States devised the Marshall Plan, which would provide economic aid to countries affected by WW2 as a means to halt the spread of Communism. The Soviets rejected aid from the Marshall Plan and instead, forged their own economic assistance plan-the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon)-which led to the establishment of their own military alliances through the Warsaw Pact of 1955 (Coffin and Stacey 980). In a sense the, "anything you can do, I can do better" mentality, is an apt way of describing Cold War tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States. Every bit of action taken by either side was often mimicked by the other-similar to the long standing Coke vs. Pepsi rivalry, and strangely enough, it was a battle of colors (red vs. blue).

With both nations considering each other a serious threat to their own well-being, defense spending increased drastically in order to develop better weapon technology, primarily nuclear. The devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki sent a message to the world that the ultimate tool for an upper hand in regards to negotiation was to possess the biggest bomb. The Soviets and the US seemed to agree, and in 1953 both nations tested the first hydrogen bombs-also known as the "super" bomb due to a yield that made the original plutonium bomb look like a hand grenade (980).

However, the US and USSR soon realized that the upper hand for negotiating is lost when both are in possession of the biggest bomb. This prompted government officials to authorize more money for research and development, and this time it would go towards developing a delivery system for the large yield weapons. It was no longer an issue of what nation had the most devastating weapon, but of who could deliver it over the furthest distance. Oddly enough, instead of being outright with their intentions, the Soviet Union and the United States found themselves competing for space supremacy. It was a race to the moon, and whatever nation reached the crater-ridden gray sphere first would in turn, be not only the world's number one super power, but the universe's.

The primary function of the space race, which began roughly around 1957 and lasted until 1975, was to develop technology that could be applied for military purposes. More importantly, the space race was meant to boost the morale of the nation to make the greatest strides in space, all-the-while demoralizing the other. The successful launch of Sputnik 1-a Soviet made satellite that was launched into orbit on October 4^th, 1957-put pressure on American engineers, who scurried to mount a response (Jorden). After numerous failed attempts at Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, the US launched the Explorer 1 satellite nearly 4 months after Sputnik was sent into orbit (NASA).

Sputnik and Explorer were only the beginning of an intercontinental competition that led to a variety of technological advances, particularly delivery systems for nuclear weapons. ICBMs or Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles coupled with satellite targeting systems (among other advancements in communications and surveillance) were the end result of Soviet and US space exploration. Nevertheless, both nations realized that with equal nuclear capabilities, in terms of weapon yield and delivery systems, they were at yet another stalemate in the Cold War conflict. While Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev, met with Western leaders to help ease the friction that came as a result of a militarized Europe, the only legitimate progress that came from the talks, was a ban on above ground nuclear testing in the early 1960s (Coffin and Stacey 981).

Due to the United States and the Soviet Union being equally matched in their nuclear capabilities, leaders of both nations expressed their desire to avoid using the advanced and powerful weapons. Each nation understood that the first to mount an offensive would be committing national suicide. Nevertheless, the Cuban Missile Crisis symbolized the climax of national tensions between the Soviets and Americans. The missile crisis sent the two nations into a frenzy of paranoia and fear. For some historians, the Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest the world has come to a full on nuclear war (Nuclear Files).

The squabble initially began when communist, Fidel Castro, became the Cuban president in February 1959. In the following year, the Soviet Union established diplomatic relations with Cuba, a move that threatened United States national security, according to US policy at the time. This forced the United States to cut off trade with Cuba, particularly the import of sugar, which made up 80% of Cuban export. Luckily for Cuba, the Soviets began importing the sugar, further securing their relationship with Castro (Nuclear Files).

The prosperity of the Soviet-Cuban relationship caused serious concern by US officials, who tried to devise a variety of ways to overthrow the communist regime of Cuba. One tactic, which was commonplace during the Cold War, was the use of proxy wars, which pitted other nations and guerilla groups against each other over Soviet and American interests. This allowed the two nations to fight each other indirectly for most of the Cold War (Coffin and Stacey 980).

While the tensions grew between the United States and Cuba, the US was currently placing armaments in ally NATO nations such as: Turkey, the United Kingdom, France, Greece and Italy. The placement of US weaponry in countries such as Turkey, which shared a border with the USSR, along with other nations well within reach of the Soviet Union, made Cuba an ideal country for Soviets to develop an alliance with. After numerous attempts to overthrow communist Cuba, ranging from attempted assassinations of Fidel Castro to the Bay of Pigs invasion and the Cuban Project (codename: Operation Mongoose), the need for Soviet military bases was justified (Nuclear Files).

During September, 1962, the USSR started transporting arms to Cuba, which was first noticed by photographs taken by USAF aircraft during reconnaissance missions. The conflict peaked in the early weeks of October, but was eventually resolved without any military action being taken. Both the United States and the USSR agreed to remove their missile bases; for the Soviets they were to disarm in Cuba and the US was to remove the missiles stationed in Turkey (Nuclear Files).

While the Cold War continued by way of proxy wars-most notably, the Vietnam and Korean wars-up until the dismantling of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the nuclear threat during the Cold War, in the eyes of history, has proven to be minimal (Coffin and Stacey 990-1002). The reason is primarily due to the fact that both nations had no intention to act first, a mentality that is dead in this new and modern day of radical terrorism and attacks from groups with no allegiance to any nation.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 worried many in regards to the fate of its remaining nuclear arms (1034). While a good portion of the nuclear weapons in nations liberated from the USSR were returned to Russia, some went missing. In 1997, the ex-Soviet National Security Advisor, Gen. Alexander Lebed, told Congress that Russia could not account for roughly eight-four 1 kiloton, suitcase-sized nuclear devices (Allison 43). Nevertheless, Russian officials claimed that Lebed was spreading anti-Russian propaganda, and that such devices were either destroyed, never existed or were in Russia control (44).

Unfortunately, the United States never got to the bottom of the claims, but based on American nuclear technology, which the Soviets often copied as a result of intelligence stolen by spies, nuclear devices that could be carried in a backpack were developed (Allison 45). According to Lebed's claims, the suitcase nukes could be detonated by one person without a special code, in about thirty minutes (44). Currently, there are 9 nations in known possession of nuclear weapons. The list consists of: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea (Global Security).

Nevertheless, the modern day threat of a nuclear attack does not come from a nation, but instead, a nationless enemy with no regards for human life and no fear of death. If Lebed's claims are true, then the chance of a radical terrorist group acquiring a miniaturized nuclear device is probable, making the threat of a nuclear attack on the US very real. Given the unallied status of most terrorist organizations, a US response to a terrorist initiated nuclear attack would be difficult to carry out, considering the attack is not the doing of a nation.

However, new evidence suggests that Saddam Hussein had acquired ex-Soviet nuclear arms prior to the US-Allied invasions of Iraq. The nuclear devices were supposedly smuggled into Syria once Saddam became aware of the impending invasions (Global Security). Such evidence suggests that while terrorist organizations may not be tied to one nation, they still must operate within the borders of countries. Not only are certain nations responsible for allowing terrorist groups to operate freely from within their borders, but the effect of Globalization has allowed for the increase of Black Market trading of weapons and nuclear technology. One example can be seen by the 2003 interception of a cargo ship carrying parts for centrifuges, used to enrich uranium. The seller was Dr. A.Q. Khan, the developer of Pakistan's nuclear bomb; the buyer was Libyan, Muammar el-Qaddafi (Allison 61).

The collapse of the Soviet Union has allowed for numerous nuclear technologies to fall into a wide variety of hands. Not only has Soviet nuclear technology been sold to various nations, but the uncertainty in regards to missing nuclear devices is enough to raise concern from most of the civilized world. While the process of miniaturizing a nuclear weapon is complicated and beyond the means of terrorist groups, it doesn't negate the fact that they could simply acquire one through the black market (Global Security).

Unfortunately, assessing the threat of a nuclear attack in the modern world is tainted with a large amount of uncertainty, exaggerated claims and other intangibles. Nonetheless, given the evidence of nuclear armed states, advanced technology and the ideology of radical terrorists, it is safe to assume that the world is certainly at risk, more so than during the Cold War. In comparison to the Cold War, the current situation is far more unstable, and that is truly frightening. The solution is not easy, and with certain regions of the world engulfed in turmoil, preventing a terrorist organization from acquiring nuclear materials will prove to be a daunting task. Hopefully, nations that are allowing terrorist groups to operate from within, will eventually realize that a nuclear attack, in this day and age, will spell the end of humanity and the world.

Works Cited

Allison, Graham T. Nuclear Terrorism: the Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe. Times Books, 2004. 1-272.

Burr, William, ed. "The Atomic Bomb and the End of World II: a Collection of Primary Sources." The National Security Archive. 5 Aug. 2005. National Security Archive. 10 Apr. 2007 .

Coffin, Judith G., and Robert C. Stacey. Western Civilizations. 15th ed. New York & London: W.W. Norton & Company, 2005. 1-1063.

"Explorer Information." NASA. Department of Astronautics, National Air and Space Museum. 10 Apr. 2007 .

Jorden, William J. "Soviet Fires Earth Satellite Into Space." The New York Times 5 Oct. 1957. 10 Apr. 2007

.

"Key Issues: Nuclear Weapons: History." Nuclear Files. Nuclear Files. 10 Apr. 2007 .

The Manhattan Engineer Di. "The Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki." The Atomic Archive. 29 June 1946. The Manhattan Engineer District. 10 Apr. 2007 .

"Total Casualties." The Atomic Archive. 29 June 1946. The Manhattan Engineer District. 10 Apr. 2007 .

"World Special Weapons Guide." Global Security. 10 Apr. 2007 .

Please email and share this article with friends. For more work visit my Associated Content CP page at: www.associatedcontent.com/joedimeck