Assessing the War in Afghanistan

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published a new report by CSIS expert Anthony H. Cordesman. The report, published December 3 and available for download on the CSIS web site, is titled "The Afghan-Pakistan War: A Status Report."

The report is the second in a two report series that evaluates progress in Afghanistan and is a follow up to the first report, titled "Assessing the Afghan-Pakistani Conflict." The first report is also available on the CSIS web site.

In the report, Cordesman lays out both the known and the unknown concerning the war in Afghanistan, including conflict areas, humanitarian aid, progress in improving both the Afghan government and Afghan security forces, and what effect the counter-drug program is having on Afghan drug production. Additionally, CSIS says, the report views the war in Afghanistan as a broader conflict, hence the title "Afghan-Pakistan Conflict." This view represents the notion that the war centers on the Pashtun and tribal areas in the notorious Afghan-Pakistan border region.

Using open source documentation and opinion polls taken of citizens of both Afghanistan and Pakistan, the report begins by noting that the war in Afghanistan is not really a typical counterinsurgency campaign, but an attempt at "armed nation building." The report also demonstrates that while the Afghan population is decreasing its support for foreign military personnel on Afghan soil, most Afghans understand that there is a requirement for outside intervention to keep Afghanistan stable.

The report notes that there has been a substantial increase in the amount of territory that the Taliban controls over the past two years, and that violent attacks in the country continue to increase in number. Since the Afghanistan war centers on the Pashtuns, CSIS says, fighting has continued to encroach on tribal areas along the Pakistan border. The report says that the Taliban and al-Qaeda elements are more than likely moving more into Pakistan than concentrating on Afghanistan, where public support is not as strong.

Afghan security forces, which will one day have to take over security operations from coalition forces, are gaining proficiency, the report says, but require long-term aid. At the same time, Cordesman writes, coalition military forces are too few and national restrictions limit the effectiveness of some troop contributing nations.

In closing the report says that the Afghan government and coalition forces are not losing in Afghanistan, but the war could last all the way until 2018. The report also says that the coalition in Afghanistan has to plan for at least another five years, and that more emphasis on security may be required.

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies web site