Atlanta Braves 2008 Preview

In a perfect world, at the end of the 2008 season Frank Wren, the Atlanta Braves' new general manager, would be hugging manager Bobby Cox on the field, tears running down their faces as they celebrate Cox's twenty-third- and rumored final- season at the helm of the team with his second World Series win.

Sadly, this conclusion is out of reach for this Atlanta Braves team who were at one point the class of the division, but now struggle to compete with the upstart Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

The Atlanta Braves finished the 2007 season with 84 wins, and considering the few moves that the team needs to make, that seems like a safe bet for where the team will end up at the end of 2008 as well. Granted, the winter meetings and the free agent period have yet to begin, but the Braves have all ready been active so far this off-season, cutting ties to Andruw Jones, their center-fielder of the past decade, and wisely dealing shortstop Edgar Renteria to the Detroit Tigers for pitchers Jair Jurrjens and outfield prospect Gorkys Hernandez. These moves have freed up payroll, which enabled them to bring back Tom Glavine for a one-year swan song. The Braves freed up even more cash with another wise move, dealing reliever Oscar Villareal to the Houston Astros for speedy outfield prospect Josh Anderson.

The results of these moves will be mixed. Glavine, of course, is not quite the pitcher he was a decade ago, but he should still provide the Braves with at least a dozen wins in one final hurrah of his Hall of Fame career. The Braves probably wouldn't have dealt for Jurrjens if they didn't plan on him filling a much-needed role in their pitching staff, but don't be surprised if the 22-year old spends the majority of 2008 at AAA Richmond. And, yes, Gorkys Hernandez may have hit .303 in 680 minor-league at-bats, but he'll be lucky to reach AA Mississippi by the end of 2008.

Although the trade to the Braves has just been completed, all ready mlb.com lists Josh Anderson at the top of the team's depth chart to be the starting center fielder next season. It should be pointed out, however, that the 2007 Baseball Prospectus calls Anderson an "aspiring fifth outfielder type" whose blazing speed distracts from the fact that he doesn't have any other skills. If Anderson does indeed manage to become the starting center fielder out of spring training, he easily becomes the Braves' most potent speed threat, capable of 40 stolen bases. However, he does so at the expense of blocking a spot for Jordan Schafer, a toolsy Braves prospect who hit 74 extra-base hits at two stops at single-A ball in 2007, establishing himself as the Braves' center fielder of the future. Considering that Schafer will turn 21 in 2008, the future may still be a year or two away, allowing Anderson to be a perfect stop-gap.

Or perhaps one of the two can be slotted into left-field, as of the Braves' starters going into next season, Matt Diaz raises the most questions for me. Sure he batted .338 last season, in limited playing time with a small sample size of 358 at-bats. Diaz has a .320 carer batting average in 307 games- averaging just 2.6 plate appearances per game. His career walk to strikeout ratio of 33-to-136 gives testimony as to the doubts I have of Diaz being a full-time starter. Left-handed hitting Willie Harris- who's never delivered on the potential that his skills have hinted at- should get a good chunk of playing time in left-field, and could even claim the position as his own if Diaz is packaged for some bullpen help.

There's always a chance that the Braves could make a trade or sign a free agent to fill Andruw Jones' open slot in center field. But any player they receive would have to be free of a long-term contract so as to avoid blocking the talent coming up through the pipeline. There has been talk of the Braves making a deal for the Royals' David Dejesus- who has three years remaining on his contract- or they could possibly sign Corey Patterson, who's chronic under achievement prevents him from demanding much in a contract and whose speed is also needed by this sluggish offense. More than likely, however, the Braves will stick with the youngsters they have available.

And this unwillingness to go for broke will cause them to fall just short of winning a division title for the third consecutive season. The offensive core of this ball club is good, if not great- even at 36, Chipper Jones could still sniff 40 home runs and another MVP award; Brian McCann is setting the standard for a "slugging catcher" and should top last year's 92 RBIs; and you can bank on a full 30-home run and 100-RBI season from Mark Teixeira, who becomes eligible for arbitration at the end of the year. By trading Renteria, the shortstop position is handed to Yuni Escobar, who has the potential to be one of the most exciting Braves players for some time to come. By 2009, Escobar and Anderson at the top of the Braves' line-up will be giving a number of headaches to opposing managers and pitching staffs.

The pitching staff is anchored by Tim Hudson, who could potentially reach 18 wins for the first time since 2001 with the Oakland A's. Considering the wear that he's put on his arms through his many years as a power pitcher, 41-year old John Smoltz may be waning in his effectiveness, and he may join Cox and Glavine riding into the sunset when his contract expires after the end of the 2008 season. There's a dearth of quality pitching in the league-average arms that remain- Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle- which bodes ill for the team looking back on its glory days of a rotation solidified by the trio of Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz.

However, of all the pitchers available to find a slot in the rotation, I am most intruiged by Jo Jo Reyes, who as a hard-throwing lefty piled up 411 strikeouts in 419 minor league innings, with a 2.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Reyes may have struggled with his command in his brief taste in the major leagues in 2007, with a 27-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50 innings, but if he's able to harness his skills and manage to pitch 170 innings, Reyes could conceivably reach 14 wins and 150 strikeouts as he becomes the Braves' "Next Big Thing."

Of course, Reyes' skills may be more required in the righty-heavy bullpen, as lefty specialist Ron Mahay has filed for free agency, though the team is interested in bringing him back. The biggest question of the Braves' bullpen is who should be the team's closer, and all though conventional wisdom would hand that position to Rafael Soriano- who had nine saves after Bob Wickman was released last season- considering just how dominating Soriano has been as a set-up man, I'd argue that it makes more sense to keep him in that position and hand the closer role over to Mike Gonzalez, who's closed before. Providing, of course, that Gonzalez's arm is fully recovered from injury. Regardless, the Braves better hope they can re-sign Mahay as, besides Peter Moylan, no other Brave relievers fill me with confidence.

In the final analysis, 2008 looks to be a thrilling ride for Braves fans. The team will be competitive, with its mix of young blood and old favorites making a charge at yet another division title for Bobby Cox to add to his collection. In the end, the Braves will come up short, but the nucleus for a competitive post-Cox team will squarely be in place, and a bright future continues to be in store for the Atlanta Braves, regardless of who replaces Cox in the dugout.