Bachmann Should Have Won Iowa Straw Poll -- She Paid for It

It is no secret that not only did those voting in the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on Saturday have to pay $30 per ticket just to cast a vote but that many of those same ticket-holders had their tickets paid for by the various candidates involved. In fact, there were so many bought that, if not for the fact that Michele Bachmann had just recently won a Rasmussen Reports poll (released Aug. 8) that placed her at the top of the Republican field of 2012 presidential contenders, the results of the straw poll indicating she had won would have been completely dismissible.

According to a report posted by CNN just minutes before Saturday's straw poll, the Bachmann camp had given out at least 4,000 tickets prior to voting. In a live report on CNN the same day, Chris Cillizza noted there were reports they had given out more than 6,000. What makes the second report interesting is that Bachmann only received 4,823 total votes, which prompts the questions: What happened to the other 1,200 or so votes (assuming that at least a few people actually paid for their own tickets) Bachmann bought? Did they just not vote, or did those ticket-holders vote for someone else?

At the same time, it also must be asked: Just how trustworthy is the Ames Straw Poll? The same CNN report that cited the Bachmann camp's numbers also revealed the Ron Paul camp had "moved a couple thousand tickets" to their supporters as well. Paul came in second place to Bachmann by only 152 votes.

In fact, one of the biggest surprises at the straw poll, according to the Los Angeles Times, was the margin of victory -- because Bachmann and company were looking to pull in an excess of 6,000 votes.

A quick look at the last four polls tracking Iowa voters (via Real Clear Politics), all of which Bachmann won, the closest Paul came to second was in the most recent, the Rasmussen Reports poll. He finished third. Tim Pawlenty, who finished third in the Ames Straw Poll and would subsequently withdraw from the GOP nomination race, finished third in the other three polls that began with The Iowa Republican poll taken at the end of June. Mitt Romney, the national frontrunner and staying within the statistical margin of error in three of the four polls (and second place), finished a lowly seventh.

But Romney did not make an appearance at the Ames Straw Poll.

So what do the results actually say? Nothing really conclusive, except that a salted mine is still a worthless claim. If buying a victory in Iowa, where Bachmann had home-state advantage and poll leadership, only gave her a 152-vote edge, her campaign may be in trouble on a national level, where she finishes double-digits down to frontrunner Mitt Romney, several points down to Rick Perry, and (in a couple polls), even finishes behind Sarah Palin, who has not even declared her candidacy for president.