Baltimore Orioles 2008 Season Preview

Consider the fact that the last time the team had a winning season- ten years ago- there were no such things ipods or mp3s, Bill Clinton was still in the White House, LeAnn Rimes won the Grammy Award for best new artist (and sold at least 17 million records since then), and Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio created an epic love story on board the "Titanic", spawning a number of box office records while doing so, not to mention an incredibly annoying Celine Dion song as well.

Yes, it's been a long while since they've seen a winning ballclub in Baltimore.

That 1997 club had a still-productive Cal Ripken Jr., a fiery Roberto Alomar leading the clubhouse (and spitting in umpire's faces), and a pitching staff with three 15-game winners. Since then, the once proud franchise of Earl Weaver, Frank and Brooks Robinson, and Jim Palmer, has suffered multiple ignominies: Rafael Palmeiro's positive steroid result and subsequent acrimonious finger-pointing; Sammy Sosa dragging his broken body to a .221 average; Albert Belle; Sidney Ponson; Mike Hargrove.

It's been a tough decade. Orioles fans in Baltimore deserve better. And so Andy MacPhail- who had successfully turned the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs into competitive winners on his watch- was brought on board to provide Baltimore fans with a winning, competitive team, following in the footsteps of his father, Hall of Fame executive Lee MacPhail, who ran the Orioles during the 1950s.

Imagine my reaction, then, when I read reports that the Orioles were considering trading left-handed ace Erik Bedard to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a package that included Dodger prospect Matt Kemp: "Here we go again." Sure, with his promising 2007 season (.342 average, 10 home runs, and 10 stolen bases in 98 games) Kemp has the potential to be an immediate impact player on a major league roster. But considering the current value given upon pitching these days- especially dominating left-handed starters such as Erik Bedard- would a package centered around Kemp be equal in value, even if it included other Dodger prospects Jonathan Broxton and Clayton Kershaw?

Considering that Bedard is signed through 2009, I'd argue that giving up on Bedard early would be far too foolish. Bedard could potentially be the most dominating pitcher in the league, if not all of baseball. It appears that MacPhail is attempting the prudent route of signing Bedard to an extension, which bodes the greatest chance for both the Orioles' immediate and long-term success. As MacPahil says, "Young left-handed pitchers don't grow on trees. Especially potentially dominating ones." Besides, if it's obvious that the Orioles have no choice except to trade Bedard, they better trade such a valuable commodity for some proven talent rather than a collection of potential talent (or potential duds) as the Dodgers are offering. Besides, considering that the Orioles are drafting fourth in next year's MLB draft, there's every good a chance that a major-league ready 23-year old toolsy outfielder is waitng to be plucked from college and instantly placed in the Orioles' outfield. With chances like that, it makes little sense to sacrifice such a dominating starting pitcher like Bedard.

Besides, a closer look at the horror show that is the rest of the Orioles' rotation shows just how necessary Bedard is. If Daniel Cabrera becomes the team's de facto ace, you can write this team all but out of contention. After a surprising rookie season (7-5, 3.70 ERA) Jeremy Guthrie should be able to closely match those results. Other than that, the young starting pitching talent- 24-year old Adam Loewen, 23-year old Hayden Penn- are still a year or so away from having an impact on the team's starting rotation. The Orioles are also high on 25-year old Radhammes Liz, who can play an effective role in the starting rotation or as a set-up man (even possible closer) in a depleted bullpen. With the two favorite choices for closer- Chris Ray and Danys Baez- being sidelined by Tommy John surgery for the majority of 2008, the closer's job is vacant in the Orioles' bullpen. Unless the team lands Francisco Cordero- the top available free-agent closer now that Mariano Rivera is off the market- I could imagine a spirited competition in spring training for the closer's job coming down to Jaime Walker, Chad Bradford and Liz. Walker is my favorite to start the 2008 season as closer, but anything's possible.

The offense has a key nucleus that the team can build around during the off-season, either through free agent signings or with trades. Brian Roberts has established himself as the heart and soul of the Orioles' offense, and he could be poised for his best season yet: 200 hits, .300 average, 50 stolen bases. If the Orioles end up somehow qualifying, then it's not that much of a stretch that Roberts could be considered an MVP candidate. Though its been a few years since Kevin Millar has seen his power stroke, he's my pick for an Oriole batter to have a surprise year in 2008, while Miguel Tejada- if he's not traded- and future superstar Nick Markakis will both top .300. Of their offense, the Orioles also have many extra parts that they could shop around for possible pitching help either this off-season or even into the season, including Melvin Mora, Jay Payton, Aubrey Huff, and Jay Gibbons.

But ultimately, what the Orioles' chances of competing comes down to is whether they're able to keep Erik Bedard through 2008 or not. As long as they keep him, then I'm going to go out on a limb here and say I like the Orioles chances of shaking off the past decade of futility and actually finish above .500. Even if it's by only a few games. 2008 will be the O's taking the first cautious steps towards respectability under manager Dave Trembley.