Barack Obama Ahead in 3 Key States; Increases Lead Over John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama has pulled ahead of Republican rival John McCain in thee key "Swing States," Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a survey conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Quinnipiac University is a private, nonsectarian university in Connecticut. Political surveys condicted by its Polling Insitute historically have had a high degree of accuracy.

The voter survey conducted by Quinnipiac over the weekend, in the wake of the first debate and the negotiations of the Wall St. bailout bill. It revealed that Barack Obama has surged to 50% or higher in the three key states which represent 68 Electoral College votes among them. A Presidential candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to win the Presidency.

Obama has been buoyed by his performance in the first Presidential debate, which most polls show him as having won. John McCain, on the other hand, is suffering from voters linking him to the failed economic policies of the Republican Bush Administration. As chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, McCain was a major force in the deregulation of the financial services sector that is the root of the Wall St. Crisis. His

If national polls are to be trusted, John McCain's "Back to Washington" gambit was a failure. He has even begun to slip in his home state of Arizona.

In Florida, Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain 51% to 43%, up from 49% to 43% lead in the last poll. In Ohio, Obama breached the 50% threshold and now enjoys a lead of 50% to 42% , up from 49% to 42%. McCain's support in Florida and Ohio has remained steady, while Obama's has increased. These critical swing states have 27 and 20 Electoral College votes, respectively.

President Bush took Ohio and Florida in the last two elections, while the Democratic candidate won Pennsylvania in 2000 and '04. To lose either Florida or Ohio would be devastating to a Republican candidate; to lose both would be unthinkable. No Republican candidate has ever lost Ohio and won the Presidential election. A candidate, either Democrat or Republican, must win two of the three states to win the election.

In Pennsylvania, which has 21 Electoral College votes, Obama has built up a commanding 15 point lead, besting McCain by 54% to 39%. In the previous poll, Obama had only a 6% lead over McCain, 49% to 43%.

Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Asst. Director Peter Brown said that the sharp swing towards Obama at this stage of the race was unprecedented. "It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swing so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign."

Brown also pointed out that, "In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania."

Meanwhile, a poll conducted in Arizona by the Arizona State University's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication and TV station KAET reveals that the race is tightening even in John McCain's home state. Of 976 registered voters who were surveyed from September 25th through 28th, 45% said they probably will vote for John McCain against 38% who expressed support for Barack Obama. One percent of those polled named Ralph Nader as their favorite, while 16% remained undecided. got 1 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 3% plus or minus.

Sources:

Boston Globe, "Obama surges in key swing states"

Los Angeles Times, "Poll: McCain still ahead in his home state, 1st Ld-Writethru, AZ"

Pittsburgh Business Times, "Poll: Obama has 15-point lead over McCain in Pennsylvania"