Barack Obama is Peaking Too Early: Why Has the 2008 Campaign Started Already?
Thousands of people showed up in Cleveland recently in a huge show of support for presidential candidate Barack Obama. Despite his relative inexperience, Obama received a huge ovation as the crowd lapped up every word he said.
Whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, you have to see the obvious problem here.
The election is 20 months away!
What's going on here? As soon as the 2006 midterm elections ended, politicians threw their hats into the ring for 2008.
I fail to see the advantage of declaring your candidacy this early. Are the candidates afraid of running out of time to meet everyone in America? With the Internet and constant news coverage, a candidate's message gets out very easily.
The media is already starting to focus on the rivalry between Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. Not only does that marginalize the other Democratic candidates, it means Obama and Clinton will spend a longer time fighting each other than either one would spend battling the eventual Republican nominee.
In a way, Obama and the other Democratic candidates were forced to play their hands early. Ever since John Kerry lost the election in 2004, everyone suspected that Hillary would go after the top spot in 2008. Rather than allow her to become the de facto nominee, the other Democrats almost had no choice but to enter the fray early.
The results haven't been pretty. Joe Biden shot his candidacy in the foot early on with his ill-conceived compliment that Obama is a "clean" African-American candidate. Tom Vilsack dropped out before the year of the election even arrived!
Then Hillary's camp got angry that her former supporter, media mogul David Geffen, supported Obama and called the Clintons a couple of accomplished liars. Team Hillary demanded an apology from Obama. He wisely refused, considering he didn't make the comment.
Obama is getting a strong response from crowds, and his book (The Audacity of Hope) is spreading his message - but how long can he keep up this momentum?
Voters may get tired of the entire pack of candidates by the beginning of 2008, let alone the end of the year. If I were running for president, I would wait until October of 2007 to declare my intentions.
Rather than starting at a disadvantage, I would seem like a fresh face to voters who have been subjected to the other candidates for an entire year. I would learn from their mistakes and hire any of their staff members who quit or were fired earlier in the year. Best of all, I wouldn't have to spend a dime until the fall!
So Obama would be wise to slow down and make himself unavailable for awhile. If Obama and Hillary keep going like this, it will be another Democrat (John Edwards perhaps?) who gets the nomination next year.
Published by Jeff D Gorman
Jeff Gorman is a journalist for a local newspaper, editor for BleacherReport.com and a legal writer for CNP. When he isn't writing he's pursuing his sports broadcasting career. When you need a profession... View profile
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6 Comments
Post a CommentI am so sick of the GWB regime that I am actually enjoying all the excitement of finally getting rid of him. I agree with Agaric that knowing who is running gives me time to visit the websites and learn more about them rather than rely on public appearances and biased media coverage.
Earlier primaries this year - Iowa and New Hampshire actually backing theirs up before Feb. 5 - have been the primary reason behind the early surge of candidates throwing their hats into the ring this year. While using more 21st Century campaigning tools, and fewer from the 19th Century (ie, the Internet, TV, and radio as opposed to making baby-kissing appearances at every bar-b-que and whistle stop between Vermont and Utah) may eventually be embraced, at this point no one will likely hear the person who waits "until Oct. 2007" to announce a candidacy for all the dust from other campaigns that will invariably be clogging that poor hopeful's throat.
Fantastic - excellent points. If you promise not to make public appearances or run ads until next Halloween, I'll vote for you!
lalallalalal
It's going to take that long for the media to figure out if Obama is black. While they revisit black vs African American, more troops are being sent off to war and more $ are being allocated for it. Talk about messed up priorities.
Agaric, you NAILED it. I agree with you 10,000%.