Barack Obama's Big Lead: Will it Last?

The most recent Gallup poll shows Barack Obama has maintained a sizable lead for several days now. The October 9 Gallup poll shows Obama leads John McCain nationally 52% to 41%. However, as the lead now breaks out beyond the margin of error, questions about why he has taken the lead late in the race and if he will sustain his lead now surface.

First of all, let's look at what event primarily led to Obama's current lead: the economic crisis. In early- and mid-September, before the U.S. stock market markedly began its most recent streak of severe daily losses, McCain had in fact been leading over Obama by margins of at least two and three points. Important to note, Gallup's daily tracking of economic confidence has shown more people are decreasingly confident, just as Obama's lead has increased.

Negative sentiment is up 2 points in just one day as confidence decreased by 1 point; overall, on October 9, 85% felt negatively about the economy whereas just 2% felt confident.

If the economy is the one area where Obama's strength lies, then a failing economy may be just what he needs to win the election and get into the White House. But is the economic egg the only one in this polling basket?

Clearly, Obama has scored well among voters for numerous reasons, but if the economy does begin to correct before Election Day, Obama's lead may erode somewhat.

Another problem Obama's poll numbers may have is that gas prices are now dropping. In fact, some analysts believe the price of gas may fall below $3 per gallon by Halloween. Gas prices falling below the psychologically significant $3 barrier may actually help McCain, right before Election Day.

As many remember, Osama bin Laden released a video right before the 2004 election, helping boost President Bush's sagging poll numbers ahead of Democratic Nominee John Kerry's. If bin Laden or al-Qaida release another video in time for media airplay just before the election, there may be a similar effect in the polls as there was in 2004.

Currently, there are many uncommitted voters who will make the last-minute bolt for either Obama or McCain. While either candidate stands a chance to receive a large, last-minute boost from uncommitted voters, the question is how will these undecided voters choose their candidate? Economy woes and a yearning for a new, decidedly different direction of national governance will give Obama a surge in the polls. Concerns about terrorism or the desire for a candidate with years of experience will help McCain even the race out.

Finally, one must consider the issue of the "Bradley effect," where voters report to pollsters support for a candidate because of perceived political correctness but wind up voting differently because of racial prejudice. While we will find out on Election Day the true extent of support for Obama's candidacy, Gallup suggests the equation of race in this election may not have any net effect, and perhaps may even have a positive effect for Obama. According to Gallup, 6% say they will not vote for Obama because of his race. 9% say they will vote Obama because of his race. While we will find out on Election Day if these figures truly represent current racial sentiment as it relates to the election, the Gallup numbers do indicate that the ultimate decider will likely not be race.

In the end, the spike in Obama's poll numbers is merely a snapshot reflection of today's attitudes, and not necessarily the attitudes of voters on Election Day. At the very least, though, Obama's strong poll numbers will benefit him among early votes, which are already occurring in some states and will soon in others.

Resources:

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-Race-May-Much-Plus-Minus.aspx
http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/other/10/10/1010gas.html