Barack Obama's Winning Plan

Barack Obama is falling behind Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Presidential Primary race. John Edwards is trailing at third, but does not intend on throwing in any campaign towels. With only 11 weeks left, how do political analysts feel Senator Obama can put himself into a position to win?

Political analysts are saying Barack Obama may have relied too heavily on early "golden boy" media attention. The presidential campaign started much earlier this year. This may have allowed too much time for initial excitement and support to diminish or change. American's, excited to see a different face in presidential power, showed high support for Barack Obama early on.. However, as Clinton begins to soften herself among women, Obama's minority edge is dropping. Senator Obama must now separate himself from Hillary Clinton and align himself with Independent swing voters, African American Voters in keys states, and the impacting voters, in the early elections.

Obama may have three key actions that can upset Clinton and put him in the race against Republicans for the President of the United States.

First, Obama needs to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire. To date, polls such as those run by Pollster.com, has the three main Democratic candidates running closely in these two states. For Senator Obama, a win in at least one of the two predominately-white states, would give African American voters a confidence in his legitimate chance in the election. Obama's camp has taken notice of the Iowa importance early on, setting up over 30 headquarters in the state, far more than any other candidate. African American voters have been skeptical of the white communities promise to elect Obama. This has led African American voters; essentially, to hold on to their voting decisions until the early states projections come in. If Barack Obama could win the primary in these states, Democratic African Americans, especially those in states like South Carolina, will most likely place their vote on Obama. Iowa is considered the first real test in the primary election.

A win for Obama in Iowa would not count Clinton out, but would certainly make her campaign a whole lot harder. A win, or strong showing, in Iowa would also carry over into New Hampshire for a higher percent of Independent votes. The 'electability' of Obama is an important factor to both 'Swinging' Independents' and African American voters. A win in both, or at least one of these states, could represent a chance for African American voices to have an impact in the general election. This is especially important for the Democrat Party, since African Americans have been showing disaffection with the party. A win would also give the Independents, who do not want to vote Republican, another choice outside of Clinton (who many Independents refuse to vote for). In the end, if Obama would lose Iowa, he would still have a strong chance, if the loss were to John Edwards.

Second, Obama needs to grab the votes of Independent voters in the key states. In previous years, Republicans had a better chance at Independent swing votes. However, with dissention against the war in Iraq, Independents are now leaning towards the Democratic Party. For Obama, this is a major opportunity to capitalize on the Independents votes. In states like Pennsylvania, Independent voters are diligent about not voting for Hillary Clinton. According to the Quinnipiac University poll, 47% of the states swing voters simply dislike her.

This could play well for Obama, if he can exploit this effectively. Statistically, Independent swing voters voted for Bill Clinton during both of his presidential runs, but also voted for President Bush in both of his presidential runs. Polls now show many swinging Independents found great disappoint in Bills Clintons Presidency. This can play negatively for Hillary by simple association. This gap in the voters' ability to misalign the two Clinton's can be a major force for Barack Obama. Independents now account for 1/3 of the voting population.

To capture a major potion of that percent, Barack Obama needs to show a willingness to unite the two parties. Tired of Republican and Democratic battles, Independents are looking for a bipartisan candidate. For now, Obama has not made a sold move to show a reflection of unity among parties. To secure the Independent vote, Obama needs to make a clear move indicating interest in political alignment.

Third, Barack Obama needs to get the backing of the African American Democrats in South Carolina. The African American vote has become more critical in presidential races. Among African American female voters, a woman in office is a strong attraction and Hillary is a strong candidate for their vote. Among male and female African American voters, especially those in the 18-40 year old range, Obama's ability to be the first minority President, catches their votes. For Barack Obama, many would assume the African American vote would be a strong given.

However, those who have assumed so have underestimated the political consciousness of this important part of the voting pool. African American voters have made it clear; a strong candidate, one whose campaign answers questions for the African American communities, will be the one who receives their vote. The African American vote in South Carolina is most important because of the high Democratic African American ratio. Averages of 50% of the Democratic voters in South Carolina are African American. The voters in this state have the eyes of millions watching which candidate will become their final choice. CNN/Opinion Research poll of South Carolina Democratic voters showed Clinton with a 14-point lead over Obama.

Winning over this portion of the state could help Obama leap ahead of Hillary Clinton in the primary. Rev Jesse Jackson has claimed Obama must be "bolder" in his stance, if he hopes to make in impact in South Carolina. Jackson has accused Obama, as well as the other Democratic candidates, of turning their backs on major African American crimes and issues. This, Jackson feels, could tarnish Obama's image as a "strong black man" among African American voters. So what can he do to insure a win in South Carolina? Barack Obama needs to continue to push health care initiatives for the African American community.

Equality in medical care and education is still a battle for the minorities and a candidate who can insure an equal fight, will most likely win the vote. African American Voters have felt slighted in American politics. However, in this primary race, all three candidates had placed a great deal of attention on them. The voters are taking advantage of this attention and are letting the candidates know; their votes will need diligent earning.

Political Analyst still sees Obama as a healthy threat to Hillary Clinton. Clinton, whose campaign has begun to soften, is the current front-runner, but not necessarily the favorite to win. For Obama to win he must begin to present a clear-cut position on key issues. Currently, Obama's main platform is attacking the votes for the Iraq Peacekeeping/War plan. However, analyst and voters say, that is not enough. Obama needs to show initiatives that are more determined. He needs to produce a clear plan for health care, education, social security, and other key American voting issues. As well, Obama needs to separate himself from Hillary Clinton. Obama needs to make a complete distinction between what his service, as the United States President, would offer America. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are among the first states to vote in the primary elections. Obama's showing in these key states could be the beginning or end of his candidacy.