Baseball Hall of Fame 2011 Election: A Look Ahead

Every winter, the Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, NY announces it's inductees for that year. Being inducted into the Hall of Fame is the ultimate honor a player can garner, and only the best and the brightest are selected. Every year, a list of new candidates becomes eligible for election for the first time. A player becomes eligible for election to the Hall of Fame if they played at least 10 years in the major leagues and have been retired for five years.

First-time eligible players, plus those returning to the ballot from the previous election, are voted on by 10-year members of the Baseball Writer's Association of America, or BBWAA for short. These voters may vote for up to ten players, although many vote for far less. A player must be named on 75% of ballots to be elected to the Hall of Fame. Those named on 5% of ballots or more carry on to the next year's election. Those that receive less than 5% of the votes are dropped from the ballot. A player appears on the ballot for 15 years, or until he is elected or his vote total falls below 5%, whichever comes soonest. If a player is not elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA they can be elected by the Veterans committee, although they'd have been retired for 20-plus years at that point.

Since a player becomes eligible for election five years after they retire, we can look ahead several years to see what players will become eligible for the first in certain years. Today, we will look at players who will first become eligible for election to the Hall of Fame in 2011, in other words, players who retired after the 2005 season.

From the Hall of Fame's web site, here is a preliminary draft of the list of players who will appear on the Hall of Fame election ballot for the first time in time for the 2011 ballot (in alphabetical order): Wilson Alvarez, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, Cal Eldred, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Jose Offerman, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Paul Quantrill, Steve Reed, Kirk Rueter, Rey Sanchez, Benito Santiago, B.J. Surhoff, Ugueth Urbina, Ismael Valdez, Larry Walker, and Dan Wilson.

This is an interesting group, as there are several players that have arguments for election, but are borderline candidates, so they could go either way. The constant shadow of the steroid scandal that has plagued baseball for the last decade or more also rears it's ugly head here, as well.

Note, statistics listed as three decimals separated by slashes (ex. .300/.400/.500) stand for batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. These are known as "rate stats" because they tell us how often a player did something. Career totals, such as 500 home runs, are called counting numbers, because they tell us how many times something happened.

I have broken the new candidates down into a number of categories based on their qualifications and chance of being elected.

The No Doubter

The list of candidates above has 25 names on it, and one of them stands out as a no doubt Hall of Famer in my book. I would be very surprised if Jeff Bagwell is not elected in his first year of eligibility.

For his 15 year career, Bagwell hit at an impressive .297/.408/.540 rate, with a rare ability to hit for average, get on base via the walk, and hit for power. He finished his career with 449 home runs, 1,517 runs scored, and 1,529 RBI. In addition to being a bit threat at the plate, he played excellent defense at first base and could run as well. He stole 202 bases in his career, including two seasons of 30 or more. He had the hardware to back up his status as the face of the Astros franchise (for whom he played his entire career), winning the Rookie of the Year (1991), MVP (1994), Silver Slugger (1994, 1997 & 1999), and Gold Glove (1994) awards during his career while being an all star four times. Additionally, Bagwell gets good marks as a teammate and role model. I have yet to hear a good argument for Bagwell not being worth of Hall of Fame election, and if one newly eligible player gets elected in 2011, it will be Bagwell.

Interesting Cases

After Bagwell, there are several players who I would consider borderline Hall of Fame candidates. They will get some attention from voters, and none would be a terrible choice for the Hall of Fame, but all face steep odds to actually being elected.

A glance at Larry Walker's career rate stats (.313/.400/.565) and hardware and awards (five-time all star, 1997 NL MVP, 3 time silver slugger award winner, 3 time batting champ) and you'd assume he was a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Add in his speed (230 career stolen bases) and defense (7 gold glove awards) and he looks even better.

So, why isn't Walker a lock for election? Two reasons - the "Coors factor" and injuries. Walker spent 10 years of his 17 year career in Colorado playing for the Rockies at Coors Field. During his time there, Coors was one of the greatest hitting parks in baseball history. Walker put up some huge years during those years (including his monster 1997 MVP year), and while he was a very good player before and after his time in Colorado, his home/away splits show the park did lend him a substantial boost in his numbers. How voters weigh his years in Colorado will have a great effect on his vote totals.

The other knock against Walker is his inability to stay on the field. As mentioned above, his rate statistics are very impressive, indicative of a Hall of Famer. His counting stats, however, are not nearly as lofty. With 2,160 career hits, 383 career home runs, and 1,311 career RBI, Walker is well short of classic milestones generally required for election. The reason Walker's counting stats aren't on par with his rate stats is that he was rather injury prone during his career. In fact, in 17 seasons, he played in over 140 games only four times. He played in over 150 games only once, in his 1997 MVP season.

Walker's candidacy brings to mind that of another player who had great rate stats were great but did not have the counting numbers - Edgar Martinez. Like Walker with the Coors effect, Martinez also had a knock against him - he was almost exclusively a DH during his career. Martinez first becomes eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2010, and how these two fare will be interesting to watch.

John Olerud's name is often brought up in Hall of Fame discussions, and he was a very good player for a long time. He turned in a career line of .295/.398/.465 with 2,239 career hits. He was an all star twice, won 3 gold glove awards for defense at 1b, and won a batting title. Outside of two monster seasons, Olerud was a very consistent player for a long time, which counts for something. He lacked the power typical of a first baseman, however, with only 255 career home runs, and while his other numbers are nice, they're not gaudy enough to push him over the top. I expect he'll get some votes, and probably appear on the ballot for a few years, but not garner nearly enough votes to be elected.

John Franco pitched in 1,119 games during his career, all in relief, placing him third all time in that category. He is also 4^th all time with 424 career saves. During his long 21 year career, which ended when he was 44 year old, Franco saved 30 or more games eight times, leading the league three times. He was an all star four times, and a two time winner of the Rolaid's Relief Award as his league's best closer. His career ERA of 2.89 gives him an ERA+ of 137, which ranks him 18^th all time among pitchers who threw 1,000 or more innings.

What is working against Franco's Hall of Fame induction? In general, relief pitchers have had a tough time when it comes to induction into the Hall of Fame. There are currently only five relief pitchers in the hall, and two of them were only elected within the last two years, including Goose Gossage, who will be inducted this year. Franco, while consistently excellent for a long time, was not as flashy as some other relievers, and didn't put up the monster seasons some others did. In the early part of his career, Franco was overshadowed by the likes of Gossage, Rollie Fingers, and Bruce Sutter, Hall of Famers all. Later, he was overshadowed by Dennis Eckersley, another Hall of Famer. At the end of his career, the younger generation of relievers, including Mariano Rivera and possibly Trevor Hoffman drew the attention of Hall of Fame voters.

Franco will garner some votes, and who knows, as the role of the relief pitcher is appreciated more and more by Hall of Fame voters, he may eventually get in. Olerud and Walker may also some day get into the Hall, and having any of them there would in no way lower the standards of the Hall of Fame.

The (Suspected) Juicers

Sadly, no discussion about the Hall of Fame elections of the next several years can happen without mention of steroids. How players suspected of (or caught using) steroids will get dealt with by the voters remains to be seen. Mark McGwire, the first suspected steroid user to come up for election, has not fared well in the voting.

The 2011 election will be the first year of eligibility for election for three players who's career stats suggest they may be deserving of Hall of Fame induction, but who's names have been associated with steroids in one way or another.

Rafael Palmeiro, if it were not for fact that he tested positive for steroids less than a year after defiantly wagging his finger in front of a Congressional panel on steroids, would be a sure Hall of Fame inductee. He finished his 20 season career with over 3,000 hits (3,020) and 500 home runs (569), and 1800 RBI (1,835). Those numbers rank him 24^th, 10^th, and 14^th all time, respectively. He added four all star appearances, three gold gloves, and two silver slugger awards to his resume before testing positive for steroids in 2005.

Juan Gonzalez was one of the top sluggers of 1990's and early 2000's, and most certainly would have gotten a lot of Hall of Fame votes if he were not associated with steroids. During his 17 year career, Gonzalez hit at a .295/.343/.561 rate and hit 434 home runs during his career, including five seasons with 40 or more home runs. He was a three time all star, a two time MVP, and a six time silver slugger award. Other than steroids, the major knock against Gonzalez is that injuries robbed him of quite a bit of playing time, both during his prime and at the end of his career. He did not play more than 82 games in any season after the age of 31. Gonzalez, who never tested positive for steroids, is tied to steroids by former teammate Jose Canseco, who mentioned both Gonzalez and Palmerio in his tell-all book on steroids, "Juiced".

Kevin Brown finished his career with a 211-111 record with a 3.28 ERA (and a 127 ERA+), and 2,397 strikeouts (37^th all time). He was a six-time all star. He had an impressive six-year stretch between 1996 and 2001 in which he put up ERA+ scores over 143 every year, and won 18 games twice, and 17 games once, and twice leading the league in ERA. Those numbers would suggest if not a sure fire Hall of Famer, at least a borderline candidate who would have a strong showing in the voting. The non-steroid knocks against Brown include the fact that he only won 20 or more games in a season once, and other than his six-season peak, he was somewhat inconsistent. Also, 211 wins is impressive, but by no means a number that makes a player a lock for the Hall of Fame. Brown fell from the "borderline" list to the "suspected juicers" list when he was mentioned in the Mitchell report on performance enhancing drugs in major league baseball.

Very Good, But Not HOF Caliber

On the surface, Tino Martinez' career numbers, which include .271/.344/.471 rate stats, 339 home runs, and 1,271 RBI, put him well short of Hall of Fame numbers, especially for a first baseman. Two all star appearances and a single silver slugger award don't add much to his resume, but Martinez will probably get more than a few Hall of Fame votes because of his role in the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990's, for whom he won four world series. It is doubtful Martinez will get close to being elected to the Hall of Fame, but he may remain on the ballot for several years as the writers honor him for his role in the latest Yankees dynasty. This writer sees nothing wrong with that.

Probable "One and Done"

The remaining players on the Hall of Fame's list (Wilson Alvarez, Carlos Baerga, Bret Boone, Cal Eldred, Marquis Grissom, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Al Leiter, Raul Mondesi, Jose Offerman, Paul Quantrill, Steve Reed, Kirk Rueter, Rey Sanchez, Benito Santiago, B.J. Surhoff, Ugueth Urbina, Ismael Valdez, and Dan Wilson), 2011 will probably be their one and only appearance on the ballot, as it is highly unlikely that any of them will garner the 5% of the vote necessary to remain on the ballot. Of course, this is not a slight to these players, all of whom played in the majors for at least ten seasons, and many much longer. Many of these players had long and successful careers, creating many great memories for their fans.

Conclusion

The 2011 Hall of Fame class includes one no-doubt electee in Jeff Bagwell, plus several other players who will garner solid support. The fate of these players, plus the players who's reputations have been tarnished by steroid use, will be influenced by the changing attitudes of the voters, and of course, the results of the two hall of fame votes between now and 2011.