Baseball is What Percent Pitching?

Most baseball fans have heard the expression that baseball is 70% pitching or 80% pitching or 90% pitching. Many baseball analysts would tell you that pitching is more important than hitting. But is it really? And if pitching is more important than hitting can we say by what percentage?

In order to try and figure out what percentage of baseball is pitching, I went back and looked up all the pennant winning teams from 1901 until 2006. A total of 210 teams, with their being no pennant winners from 1994 when major league baseball canceled the playoffs and World Series due to the player strike. I then totaled the number of pennant winners who led their league in runs scored and the number of pennant winners who led their league in fewest runs allowed.

In theory, if pitching is more important in baseball than hitting more teams who led their league in fewest runs allowed (pitching) should have won more pennants than teams who led their league in runs scored (hitting). And if that is so then we can try and put a percentage number on how much more important pitching is in baseball. What did I find?

Out of 210 total teams, 88 led their league in runs scored while 95 led their league in fewest runs allowed. So 41.9% of the time the team that led the league in runs scored won the pennant, and 45.2% of the time the team that allowed the fewest runs in their league won the pennant. Percentage wise then, pitching is indeed more important than hitting in terms of winning pennants. And we can quantify the difference at about 7%. In terms of winning pennants pitching is about 7% more important than hitting. (I understand this is far from perfect but it's a relatively simple and certainly interesting way to reach an answer.)

However, when I looked at which teams actually won the World Series a different picture emerges. The record of teams that led their league in fewest runs allowed in the World Series is just 42-46 (.477). Teams that led their league in runs scored have a record of 44-39 (.530). Percentage wise almost a complete reversal of the pennant winning stats.

Teams that led their league in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed, what I like to call Juggernaut teams, had a combined record of 20-12 (.625). Juggernaut teams include the 1927 Murders Row Yankees of Ruth and Gehrig, the 1936-1939 Yankees, the 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers with Jackie Robinson, the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates who upset the Yankees on Bill Mazeroski's famous home run, the 1984 Detroit Tigers who started the year by going 35-5, the 1995 Cleveland Indians who lost the World Series to the Braves, and the great Yankee team of 1998 that won 114 games and swept the Padres in the World Series.

Teams that led their league in fewest runs allowed while their World Series opponent did not lead their league in fewest runs allowed went just 27-32 (.458). Such teams include the 2006 Detroit Tigers who led the AL in fewest runs allowed but were easily handled by the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series. And the best example of such teams has to be the Atlanta Braves who lead the NL in fewest runs allowed in 1992, 1996 and 1999 only to lose the World Series each time to teams that did not lead the AL in runs allowed. Though the 1995 Braves did upset the Juggernaut Cleveland Indian team and win the World Series while also leading the NL if fewest runs allowed.

Teams that led their league in runs scored while their World Series opponent did not lead the league in runs scored went 25-20 (.556). Important numbers for anybody who likes to bet or gamble on the World Series.

Personally I bet the Juggernaut St. Louis Cardinals of 2004, who led the NL in both categories, to beat the Boston Red Sox who only led the AL in runs scored. But the Red Sox overcame that and the curse and swept the Cards, and my money, away. But I came back last year and got my money back and then some as I bet the Cards to upset the Tigers as big underdogs and the stats proved true as the Cards easily handled the Tiger team that had led the AL in fewest runs allowed.

Sixteen times in the World Series teams have met where one team led their league in runs scored but not fewest runs allowed while their opponent led their league in fewest runs allowed but not most runs scored. The record of such teams was 8-8.

What have we learned? That pitching is probably more important, say by around 7% in terms of teams winning pennants and getting to the World Series. But in terms of actually winning the World Series leading your league in runs scored has proven to be more decisive by about 7% also.

Or as Casey Stengel used to say, "Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa." But the best quote on baseball percentages comes from baseball's best pundit Yogi Berra, "Ninety percent of this game is half mental."