Baseball Statistics: Pythagorean Expectation
Pythagorean Expectation Calculation
Runs Scored^1.83
Win% = ---------------------------------------------
Runs Scored^1.83 + Runs Allowed^1.83
2008 AL EAST
2008 Tampa Bay Rays Actual Record = W97 - L65 / .599 Win%
774^1.83
------------------------------- = .571 162 games X .571 win% = 92 Wins
774^1.83 + 671^1.83
2008 Tampa Bay Rays Pythagorean Record = W92 - L70 / .571 Win%
We can conclude that the Tampa Bay Rays exceeded their expectation by winning 5 more games than their runs for/against indicated. Had they played to expectations, they would have only one the wild card instead of the division.
2008 Boston Red Sox Actual Record = W95 - L 67 / .586 win%
845^1.83
------------------------------- = .586 162 games X .585 win% = 95 Wins
845^1.83 + 694^1.83
2008 Boston Red Sox played exactly to their Pythagorean Expectation.
2008 Toronto Blue Jays Actual Record = W86 - L76 / .531 Win%
714^1.83
-------------------------------- = .572 162 games X .572 win% = 93 Wins
714^1.83 + 610^1.83
Had both the 2008 Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays played up to their Pythagorean expectation, the Blue Jays, not the Rays, would have made the wild card.
Pythagorean Expectation Standings.
American League
AL EAST
Boston Red Sox 95 - 67 Luck: 0
Toronto Blue Jays 93 - 69 Luck: -6
Tampa Bay Rays 92 - 70 Luck: 4
New York Yankees 87 - 75 Luck: 2
Baltimore Orioles 73 - 88 Luck: -5
AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox 89 - 74 Luck: 0
Minnesota Twins 88 - 75 Luck: -1
Cleveland Indians 81 - 81 Luck: -5
Detroit Tigers 78 - 84 Luck: 2
Kansas City Royals 73 - 89 Luck: -4
AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels 88 - 74 Luck: 12
Texas Rangers 79 - 83 Luck: 3
Oakland A's 75 - 86 Luck: 0
Seattle Mariners 66 - 96 Luck: -5
Notes: Boston Red Sox should have had home field advantage in the playoffs. Toronto Blue Jays should have been the wild card instead of the Tampa Bay Rays. Los Angeles Angels greatly over performed their expectation by 12 games.
National League
NL EAST
Philadelphia Phillies 92 - 70 Luck: 0
New York Mets 89 - 73 Luck: 0
Florida Marlins 81 - 81 Luck: 3
Atlanta Braves 78 - 84 Luck: -6
Washington Nationals 63 - 98 Luck: -4
NL Central
Chicago Cubs 97 - 64 Luck: 0
Milwaukee Brewers 86 - 76 Luck: 4
St. Louis Cardinals 86 - 76 Luck: 0
Houston Astros 77 - 84 Luck: 9
Cincinnati Reds 71 - 91 Luck: 3
Pittsburgh Pirates 66 - 96 Luck: 1
NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers 86 - 76 Luck: -2
Arizona Diamondbacks 81 - 81 Luck: 1
Colorado Rockies 73 - 89 Luck: 1
San Francisco Giants 69 - 93 Luck: 3
San Diego Padres 67 - 95 Luck: -4
Notes: New York Mets make the playoffs as the wild card over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals finish in 3rd place instead of 4th.
Pythagorean Expectation is an excellent way to judge how much a team over or under performs. If your team underperforms its expectations, but retains the same core group of players for the next season, you can expect your team to do better. If your team over performs its expectations, and also retains the same core group of players, there's a chance your team will regress. Teams that over perform one year and barely make the playoffs should not be a surprise when they perform closer to their expectation and miss the playoffs. On the flip side, if your team under performs and barely misses the playoffs, you should take solace in the fact that next year your team will probably perform better, and you might see those sweet, sweet playoffs.
All Win-Loss records taken from www.baseball-reference.com/
Published by Unknown
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1 Comments
Post a CommentThe Tigers expected was 78-84 but they were 74-88, so there luck should have been -4 rather than +2 since they were four games under where they should have been. The Tigers should have finished five games above the Royals according to your stats.